Bitget研究院周報（節選）：SpaceX巨額IPO來了，市場會被「抽血」嗎？
- 核心觀點：文章分析了超級IPO潮對市場的溫和影響，對比了Hyperliquid與Bitget在Pre-IPO合約流動性上的結構性差異，並剖析了穩定幣市場的極端分化及量化策略表現。
- 關鍵要素：
- 超級IPO潮衝擊溫和：SpaceX估值1.5-2.0T美元，史上最大IPO對市場衝擊僅約1%，歷史上發行潮後12個月標普500回報超20%，但可能在擁擠的科技板塊產生共振。
- Pre-IPO合約流動性對比：Blue Origin火箭爆炸導致Hyperliquid上SpaceX合約7分鐘暴跌43%，400+錢包爆倉；而Bitget採用「現貨+合約」雙層架構，透過現貨庫存套利對沖，有效抑制插針風險。
- 穩定幣增長分化：USDGO自3月以來增長547%，由合規背書驅動強資金虹吸；USDe市值萎縮25.5%，因算法型穩定幣需求邊際轉弱。
- USDGO兼具收益與功能：Bitget上持有USDGO可獲最高4.3% APR日收益，並可作為IPO Prime打新資產，強錨定1美金。
- 量化策略普遍跑贏：5月BTC下跌3.4%，22個策略中18個跑贏持幣，平均alpha+1.93%；OBV量價背離策略以+7.41% alpha登頂。
Market Hot Topics:
1. Mega IPO Wave Hits U.S. Stock Market: SpaceX S-1 Filed, Expected to List as Early as June (Valuation $1.5-2.0T). Deutsche Bank estimates the largest IPO's impact on the market is only about 1%; historically, IPO waves act as a lagging indicator of bull markets. IPOs do not cause significant market downturns but instead lay the foundation for future bull markets. The Blue Origin rocket explosion caused the Hyperliquid SpaceX contract to flash crash 43% in 7 minutes, liquidating 400+ retail accounts. Bitget focuses on Pre-IPO spot assets, enabling market participants to engage in spot/futures arbitrage with higher market depth, effectively controlling the risk of price spikes.
2. Stablecoin Divergence Intensifies: USDGO has grown 547% since March, driven by compliance endorsement creating capital absorption; USDe market cap has shrunk by 25.5%, indicating weakening marginal demand for algorithmic stablecoins. USDGO offers a relatively high base yield on Bitget and can be used as IPO Prime subscription assets, with high market demand and a strong peg to $1.
3. BTC dropped 3.4% in May, with 18 out of 22 quantitative strategies outperforming holding BTC, averaging an alpha of +1.93%. The OBV volume-price divergence strategy topped the list at +7.41%.
Assets to Watch: BTC, XLM, PSG (UEFA Champions League catalyst), HYPE (reaching ATH), AVGO (Q2 earnings on 6/3), NG (Natural Gas).
I. Impact of Mega IPOs on the Market
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, three mega IPOs, are set to list in a cluster. SpaceX's S-1 has been filed, with listing expected in the second week of June at a valuation of $1.5-2.0T, raising $75 billion, making it the largest in history. The impact of the listing wave on the market itself is modest (about 1%). Historically, the median return for the S&P 500 is approximately 8% three months after an IPO wave and over 20% after twelve months (as shown in the chart, yellow areas indicate historical IPO waves, where the S&P 500 maintained an upward trend during most periods).
Demand remains robust: household cash balances are $3.3 trillion above trend, Q1 profit growth is the strongest in 20 years, and buybacks remain high. However, there are underlying risks in position structures—overall equity positions are at the 53rd percentile, but large-cap tech is at the 93rd percentile. In terms of fund flows, tech funds saw an inflow of $9 billion, the largest in seven months, while flows from Japan, Europe, and emerging markets have been negative for six consecutive weeks. The impact of the IPOs will not be evenly distributed but will resonate in the most crowded tech sector.
II. Hyperliquid vs Bitget Pre-IPO Futures Liquidity
On May 29, a static fire test explosion of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket wiped out approximately $8 billion in market value for the space sector, causing panic to quickly spread to SpaceX Pre-IPO assets. The Hyperliquid SPACEX contract plunged from $2,286 to $1,299 (-43%) within 7 minutes, leading to forced liquidation of over 400 wallets (liquidation amount: $1.51 million).
Bitget's SPCXUSDT adopts a differentiated architecture: it focuses on preSPCX spot tokens, with the spot price serving as an anchor. The futures market offers better liquidity, allowing market makers to use spot inventory for arbitrage hedging, effectively curbing price spikes during extreme market conditions. This "spot + futures" two-layer architecture demonstrates structural advantages in liquidity depth and price stability.
III. Stablecoin Growth Research
Since March 1, the growth trajectories of four stablecoins have diverged extremely. USDGO has grown 547% (from $50M to $323M), issued by Anchorage Digital Bank and distributed by OSL, which holds a Hong Kong SFC license. Its compliance endorsement creates a strong capital absorption effect. USDT and USDC have grown steadily (+2.7%/+0.9%), collectively dominating the market. USDe's market cap has shrunk by -25.5%; in the BTC/ETH downtrend, the negative funding rate compressed returns from delta-neutral strategies. In terms of price stability, USDT and USDC deviate by no more than 0.15%, USDe maintains a range of $0.999-$1.001, while USDGO's price has recently been consistently pegged to $1, indicating higher market demand.
Bitget users holding USDGO in their accounts automatically receive daily yields of up to 4.3% APR, without the need for staking or locking. Additionally, after holding for 14 days via flash exchange, users can receive two-way slippage subsidies, achieving a 1:1 zero-wear exchange with USDT. USDGO can also be used as IPO Prime subscription assets, combining compliance and yield.
IV. Quantitative Strategy Monthly Report
In May, BTC fell from $76,490 to $73,876 (-3.4%). Among 22 strategies, 18 outperformed holding BTC, with an average alpha of +1.93%. The top tier (alpha > 4%): OBV Volume-Price Divergence (+7.41%), Traditional MACD (+7.04%), Bollinger Bands (+7.00%), Turtle Breakout (+4.98%), ATR Breakout (+4.96%), VWAP Mean Reversion (+4.44%), and Order Flow (+4.07%). Negative alpha strategies: BarUpDn (-6.35%), Outside Bar (-4.49%), which are overly directional and generate frequent false signals in a trendless environment.
OBV (On-Balance Volume) is a cumulative volume indicator that adds the day's volume when the closing price rises and subtracts it when it falls. The core concept is "volume precedes price." Within a 30-bar 5-minute K-line lookback window:
- When the price makes a new low but OBV does not simultaneously make a new low, it is identified as a bullish divergence, triggering a full buy;
- When the price makes a new high but OBV does not simultaneously make a new high, it is identified as a bearish divergence, triggering a full sell.
Optimal risk-return: VWAP Reversion (Sharpe 1.76), ATR Breakout (alpha +4.96%, drawdown only -2.64%). It is recommended to prioritize mean-reversion and classical technical strategies.
This article is an excerpt from a weekly exclusive research report for VIP users. To read the full text, please upgrade to VIP and visit the official website. https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605437591
Disclaimer: This report is for research reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and investors should assess their own risks.
