BitMart研究院每週熱點：全球流動性聚焦AI主線，加密市場蓄力觀望

1. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets

1.1 Easing Tensions in the Middle East: Phased Removal of Tail Risk

Last week, the market was highly concerned about the escalation of the US-Iran situation. Trump even canceled his attendance at his child's wedding, the Pentagon's pizza index rose abnormally, and the market as a whole entered a pricing phase of "imminent war." Oil prices surged rapidly, and global risk assets came under significant pressure. However, the situation quickly showed signs of de-escalation. The two sides eventually reached a preliminary framework agreement and agreed to extend the negotiation window by about 60 days, temporarily removing the tail risk of a full-scale conflict in the Middle East.

As risk sentiment improved, the US stock market regained strength, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hitting new cyclical highs. From the current perspective, geopolitics appears to be transitioning from previous "maximum pressure" to a "long-term stalemate." The market generally believes that large-scale military action is now a low-probability event, and subsequent developments will likely focus on ongoing negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, security arrangements, and sanctions. Barring any new unexpected events, the disruptive impact of geopolitics on risk assets is expected to gradually diminish.

1.2 AI Tech Stocks: Bubble in Mid-to-Late Stage, but Short-Term Trend Remains Strong

Currently, global risk assets are still primarily driven by the AI theme. US, Japanese, and South Korean stock markets continue to strengthen. The South Korean market, in particular, maintains a clear upward trend, driven by the AI supply chain including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Discussions within the market regarding the stage of the AI bubble have also begun to heat up significantly.

Some quantitative institutions, after evaluating based on various indicators from the Nasdaq bubble period in 2000, believe that AI tech stocks have now entered the mid-to-late stage of a bubble. Models suggest that while AI tech stocks may maintain a low-drawdown upward trend for the next 3 months or so, with average potential returns still considerable, the risk-reward ratio over the next 1-3 years is beginning to deteriorate noticeably, with the probability of high volatility and deep drawdowns rising.

However, the biggest difference from the 2000 internet bubble is that there is currently no significant overcapacity in AI infrastructure itself. Segments like computing power, storage, bandwidth, and energy consumption are still in a phase of continuous expansion. Therefore, the fundamental health of the industry itself remains strong. The real bubble exists more in the secondary market valuations. The current market has already priced in several years' worth of future earnings expectations. The valuations of many AI leaders already reflect growth potential for the next 2-5 years. If future earnings fail to meet expectations, or if capital expenditure pressure exceeds cash flow capacity, market volatility could significantly increase.

1.3 SpaceX IPO and Q4 AI Bubble Stress Test

The market is now focusing on several potential key risk nodes, including the continuous expansion of capital expenditure by tech giants, future IPOs of high-valuation AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, and the upcoming large-scale IPO of SpaceX in June.

Among these, SpaceX could become one of the largest IPOs in history. The market estimates its valuation could reach $1.5-2 trillion, with a fundraising size of approximately $75 billion. While its long-term narrative regarding space data centers and Mars colonization has enormous potential, the company is still in a state of sustained losses, and xAI is burning cash at a very fast rate. Therefore, the market is essentially valuing it based on a "deep out-of-the-money call option" logic, rather than traditional cash flow models.

If SpaceX's listing creates a significant liquidity suction effect, it could prematurely trigger a phased correction in AI tech stocks. The market generally believes that starting from the end of Q3, the risk-reward ratio for AI tech stocks will deteriorate significantly, and Q4 could enter a phase of high volatility with sharp rises and falls. However, within the current context where global funds are highly concentrated on the AI theme, the AI supply chain remains the strongest consensus for capital allocation in the short term.

1.4 Potential Changes to the Federal Reserve Framework: Volatility May Rise Again

Recently, the content of Kevin Warsh's hearing has also attracted market attention. His statements show noticeable differences from the Fed framework during the Powell era, including opposition to traditional QE/QT frameworks, a de-emphasis on forward guidance, and a greater emphasis on the market's own punishment and reward mechanisms.

The market fears that if the future Fed gradually weakens its proactive smoothing of market volatility, the volatility (VIX) that has been suppressed in recent years could rise again. Furthermore, the market is also starting to pay attention to whether the US might adjust its inflation statistical framework in the future. If real inflation rises again while the Fed's reaction lags, the bond market might start pricing in the risk of "the Fed falling behind the inflation curve" ahead of time.

Overall, the market's expectation of decreased transparency in future Fed policy and a renewed amplification of volatility is strengthening.

2. Crypto Market

2.1 BTC Consolidates Weakly, Market Funds Still Concentrated on AI Assets

Although the easing of geopolitical risks has driven a rebound in global risk assets, the overall performance of the Crypto market remains significantly weaker than that of AI tech stocks. The current main flow of market funds is still concentrated on the AI supply chain, with no clear signs yet of "profit-taking from AI flowing over into Crypto."

The recent strategic layouts of major exchanges also reflect this trend shift. Areas like Prediction Markets, US stock contracts, and AI-related assets are becoming new key focuses, while the narrative heat around traditional altcoins continues to decline. In this cycle, the capital relationship between Crypto and AI is notably different from previous bull runs. The market has not formed a clear liquidity spillover effect, so the market remains generally cautious towards small and mid-cap altcoin assets.

2.2 ETF and Derivatives Data: Market Sentiment Weakens Again

ETF flows continued to weaken. This week saw a net outflow of approximately $1.18 billion from BTC ETFs, with overall trading volume declining concurrently, indicating a decrease in institutional risk appetite.

In terms of on-chain and derivatives data, BTC Open Interest has declined in tandem with the price drop. The Funding Rate has turned positive from a significantly negative level previously, suggesting some short positions are being closed. However, spot CVD remains weak, with limited recovery in active buying pressure.

Options market sentiment has turned bearish again. Deribit Skew has rebounded to around 16%, and the premium on Put options has returned to relatively extreme levels, indicating a significant increase in market demand for hedging. Overall, the current Crypto market still lacks new incremental capital drivers.

2.3 MicroStrategy Continues Accumulation, ETH Retains Tech Narrative

This week, MicroStrategy reportedly added approximately 30,000 BTC to its holdings, bringing its total holdings close to 840,000 BTC. Compared to before, its recent buying pace has intensified significantly. Some market opinions suggest that it is essentially making a sustained bet on the long-term weakening of the US dollar's credit.

Although ETH's price performance has been weaker than BTC recently, it still retains a certain "tech asset" attribute, including the potential for integration between its on-chain ecosystem, AI, and smart contract innovation. Therefore, some institutional funds continue to allocate to it. For example, BMNR increased its ETH holdings by approximately 70,000 this week.

In comparison, BTC is currently leaning more towards being a macro asset, while ETH still retains some of its tech growth narrative.

2.4 Long-Term Perspective: After the AI Bubble Deflates, Crypto May See a Real Opportunity

The biggest characteristic of the current market remains that "AI stands out alone." Whether it's traditional stocks, altcoins, or most other risk assets, they are all continuously having their liquidity absorbed by the AI sector.

Some market viewpoints suggest that the truly opportune time to allocate significantly to Crypto might be after AI tech stocks experience a systematic "valuation reset." If the AI bubble undergoes a phase of clearing, BTC might concurrently experience a substantial pullback. That point, however, could paradoxically form an important bottom area for a new Crypto cycle.

Overall, we are still in a phase where AI dominates global liquidity, and the Crypto market temporarily lacks an independent bullish narrative.

This article is market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management before trading.