CLARITY Act通過後，加密市場將發生什麼？

Overview

On May 14, 2026, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted 15 to 9 in a bipartisan majority to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act). This vote marks the most substantive legislative push in over a decade to address the "regulatory vacuum" surrounding cryptocurrencies in the United States.

The core logic of the bill is simple yet profound: to end the years-long jurisdictional battle between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets, establishing a unified federal legal framework. If ultimately signed into law, the regulatory status of mainstream assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP would be elevated from "administrative interpretation" to "federal statute," meaning no future administration could overturn it with a simple memorandum.

This article delves into the key provisions of the CLARITY Act, analyzes its specific impact on BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and the stablecoin market, and presents market projections under three potential passage scenarios.

Key Takeaways

The CLARITY Act passed the House 294-134 in July 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15-9 on May 14, 2026;

The bill classifies all digital assets into three categories: Digital Commodities (regulated by CFTC), Investment Contract Assets (regulated by SEC), and Permitted Payment Stablecoins (primarily regulated by banking authorities);

The commodity status of Bitcoin and Ethereum will be codified into federal law, completely eliminating the tail risk of future administrative reversal;

XRP stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries, with the shadow of the multi-year SEC lawsuit receiving a permanent legal resolution;

Passive interest-bearing functions for stablecoins will be restricted, but activity-linked yields related to trading and liquidity provision are protected;

A full Senate vote requires at least 60 votes, needing support from over 7 Democratic senators, with earliest passage expected around June to July 2026;

Citi analysts directly link Bitcoin's 2026 base target price of $143,000 to the bill's passage, projecting an additional $15 billion in net ETF inflows.

What is the CLARITY Act?

The CLARITY Act, formally titled the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025" (H.R. 3633), was introduced by House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill on May 29, 2025, and passed the House on July 17 of the same year with a bipartisan vote of 294 to 134.

The bill's starting point is to resolve a fundamental contradiction: the current regulatory system relies on securities laws enacted decades ago, compounded by conflicting court rulings, creating severe legal uncertainty. According to legal analysis by Arnold & Porter, the CLARITY Act, together with the GENIUS Act (regulating stablecoin issuance) signed into law the same year, forms the dual-pillar system for U.S. digital asset regulation – the former focuses on market structure and asset classification, while the latter governs stablecoin issuance.

On May 14, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 to advance the bill, with two Democratic senators, Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, crossing party lines in support. The bill now enters the full Senate consideration phase.

Three Classification Frameworks: Redrawing the Regulatory Map

The core mechanism of the CLARITY Act is the mandatory classification of all digital assets into three legal categories. Understanding this framework is fundamental to grasping the bill's impact.

Digital Commodities

Tokens whose value derives from the actual operation of a blockchain network, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. These assets fall under the purview of the CFTC. According to Mudrex's analysis of the bill, it establishes a decentralization test based on token distribution, governance structure, and protocol control to determine eligibility, criteria most mainstream altcoins are expected to meet.

Investment Contract Assets

Tokens issued in a manner similar to startup equity financing – raised by a centralized team with a promise to build the project. These assets remain under SEC jurisdiction.

Permitted Payment Stablecoins

Dollar-pegged tokens used for actual payments and fund transfers, primarily supervised by banking regulators. The SEC and CFTC retain anti-fraud enforcement authority over their trading on registered platforms.

According to The Motley Fool's analysis framework, this tripartite classification means regulatory status will be determined by the substantive characteristics of the asset, not the subjective intent of the issuer, fundamentally changing the years-long model of "defining rules through enforcement."

Post-Passage Impact Analysis: Key Assets in Depth

Bitcoin (BTC): Tail Risk Eliminated, Institutional Entry Accelerates

Bitcoin's commodity status has long been de facto confirmed through years of CFTC regulatory practice and futures market operations. The CLARITY Act's direct effect is to codify this status into federal statute. According to BTSE's analysis, the bill provides the $98.6 billion Bitcoin ETF market with permanent legislative safeguards that no administrative guidance or court ruling could replicate.

Disruption Banking cites Citi analysts' forecasts: the bill's passage is directly linked to Citi's 2026 base target price of $143,000 for BTC, projecting an additional $15 billion in net ETF inflows. As of early May 2026, daily net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs had already exceeded $532 million.

Notably, the immediate market reaction to the bill's progress saw short-term "sell the news" profit-taking behavior: Crypto Times data shows that on May 18, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $649 million, following approximately $1 billion in net outflows during the week of May 11-15. This reflects short-term profit-taking rather than a negative judgment on the bill itself.

Ethereum (ETH): Dual Benefits from Commodity Status Confirmation + DeFi Developer Protection

Ethereum's core benefits operate on two levels.

The first level is regulatory status confirmation: the bill formally classifies ETH as a digital commodity, paving the way for staking-based ETH ETF products. Standard Chartered maintains its 2026 ETH target price of $7,500, while Citi previously downgraded its estimate to $3,175, directly attributing this to slow progress in CLARITY Act negotiations, highlighting the direct impact of legislative progress on ETH valuation.

The second level is DeFi developer protection: according to The Motley Fool's analysis, the bill explicitly protects developers writing open-source, non-custodial software, meaning deploying smart contracts will no longer carry the legal risk of being deemed an unlicensed money transmitter. DeFi developers on Ethereum and Solana will thus gain meaningful legal protection.

XRP: The Biggest Beneficiary, Permanent Legal End to the SEC Shadow

Disruption Banking's analysis points out that the bill codifies Judge Torres's ruling into permanent federal law, changing the question of whether XRP is a security from something "revocable by a future SEC interpretation" to something "only Congress can overturn." This is the most historically significant regulatory shift for XRP since it was sued by the SEC in December 2020.

Immediate market reaction confirmed this assessment: following the Senate committee vote, XRP surged 6.5% in a single day to $1.51. Total holdings across seven XRP spot ETFs now exceed $1.2 billion, a structural foundation that continues to strengthen.

Solana (SOL) and Other Mainstream Altcoins

Phemex's market analysis suggests Solana fully meets the decentralization criteria for digital commodity classification. This would clear the regulatory path for the spot SOL ETF application already submitted to the SEC. The Alpenglow upgrade launched on testnet on May 11, with a mainnet launch expected in Q3, creating a synergistic effect with the legislative tailwind.

For mainstream altcoins like AVAX, ADA, and LINK that meet decentralization standards, they will similarly benefit from the dissipation of SEC regulatory shadows through commodity classification, opening a compliance pathway for spot ETF applications along the template established by Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Stablecoin Market: Passive Interest Restricted, Activity Yields Protected

According to The Motley Fool's analysis, the bill prohibits crypto platforms from offering passive interest yields on stablecoin holdings akin to bank deposits. However, it explicitly protects activity-based yields linked to trading, payment, staking, or liquidity provision.

The practical effect of this design presents two evolutionary paths: one, capital shifts from static holdings to active on-chain participation, boosting activity density on Ethereum and Solana ecosystems; two, if activity-based yields are insufficient, some yield-seeking capital may move off-chain, exerting downward pressure on on-chain DeFi TVL.

Three Scenario Projections: Timeline and Market Impact of the Bill's Passage

Best Case Scenario (June to July 2026)

Full Senate vote secures over 60 votes, conference committee proceeds smoothly, President signs before July. JPMorgan analysts describe this as a "positive catalyst" for the digital asset market in H2 2026, suggesting the bill's passage would unlock three dimensions simultaneously: large-scale institutional capital entry waiting for clear rules; accelerated spot ETF applications for altcoins like SOL, XRP, AVAX, ADA; and transition of traditional asset tokenization from pilots to scaled deployment.

Base Case Scenario (Fall 2026)

Negotiations over stablecoin yield provisions drag through the summer, conference committee completes work between September and October, bill becomes law before the midterm elections. Market maintains range-bound volatility overall, driven by confirmation of regulatory prospects rather than new capital inflows.

Risk Scenario (2027 or Later)

TD Cowen's banking analyst team warns that Democrats may delay the bill until after the November 2026 midterm elections. If control of the House changes hands, the bill's architecture could undergo significant changes in 2027. In this scenario, altcoins are expected to correct 10% to 15%, with Bitcoin relatively resilient due to its existing commodity status support, but the overall market would exhibit a narrow range-bound pattern dominated by macro factors and lacking a regulatory catalyst.

Exclusive Insights from MEXC Crypto Pulse Research Team

The historical significance of the CLARITY Act's Senate committee vote lies not in what it solves, but in what it changes. This marks the first time the U.S. Congress has treated digital assets as a market needing "legislative definition" rather than "enforcement elimination" with a bipartisan majority. This paradigm shift is more important than any specific provision.

From a market structure perspective, we believe there are three key signals worth monitoring at this stage:

First, the duration of the "sell the news" event will be a critical indicator of structural institutional capital entry willingness. If the bill passes the full Senate with over 60 votes clearly, and Bitcoin ETFs resume net inflows within two weeks thereafter, it would suggest the previous outflows were short-term profit-taking rather than a trend reversal.

Second, XRP and Solana exhibit significantly higher price sensitivity to legislative progress compared to Bitcoin. This means during the legislative uncertainty window, their volatility premium will be notably higher than BTC. Investors considering building positions should integrate legislative timelines into their volatility management framework.

Third, the final form of the stablecoin interest provisions will directly impact the TVL distribution landscape of DeFi protocols. If the activity-based yield mechanism is reasonably designed, on-chain liquidity depth on Ethereum and Solana could see structural improvements within 6 to 12 months of the bill's implementation – a potential upside factor not yet fully priced in.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Has the CLARITY Act passed now?

As of May 2026, the bill has not yet become law. The House passed it 294-134 in July 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15-9 on May 14, 2026. The bill still requires a full Senate vote (needing 60 votes), reconciliation of House and Senate versions, and the President's signature.

Q2: What is the practical impact of the CLARITY Act on ordinary investors?

If passed, ordinary investors will benefit in two ways: first, access to crypto exposure through more compliant spot ETF products (including altcoin ETFs like SOL, XRP); second, exchanges operating under the CFTC framework will need to meet clearer registration and disclosure requirements, raising investor protection standards.

Q3: Why should stablecoin passive interest be prohibited?

Banking lobbying groups argue that offering interest on stablecoin holdings to ordinary users directly competes with bank deposit businesses and could pose systemic financial risks. FinTech Weekly's analysis notes that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong characterized this provision as protecting bank profits rather than consumer protection, a controversy yet to fully subside.

Q4: What is the difference between the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act?

The GENIUS Act (already signed into law in 2025) specifically regulates stablecoin issuance and oversight. The CLARITY Act is a broader market structure bill covering digital commodity definitions, exchange registration requirements, SEC versus CFTC jurisdictional division, and DeFi developer protections. They are designed as complementary dual-track legislation.

Q5: If the bill is delayed until 2027, what happens to the crypto market?

According to Blockchain Reporter's three-scenario projection, if the worst case materializes, mainstream altcoins are expected to correct 10% to 15%; Bitcoin remains relatively resilient due to its existing CFTC commodity status; the overall market would revert to a macro-driven model lacking regulatory catalyst support. Long/short players could consider a "long Bitcoin/short altcoins" hedging structure as a risk management tool.

Q6: Where can I trade tokens affected by the CLARITY Act?

MEXC offers spot trading for BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and numerous mainstream altcoins, accessible to users in over 170 countries and regions, with the cost advantage of zero taker fees on select pairs.

Register on MEXC now to seize market opportunities from regulatory clarity

Disclaimer

This