比特币反彈遇阻回落：78,200美元變阻力，71,400美元成關鍵支撐

Original Author: Glassnode

Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Bitcoin remains structurally resilient, but weakening spot demand, slowing ETF inflows, and increasingly crowded long positions suggest that upward momentum is gradually cooling beneath the surface.

Summary

• Bitcoin has reclaimed the True Market Mean of $78,300 but failed to hold above it. Based on historical cycles, weeks to months of consolidation near this level are typically required to confirm a credible bullish transition.
• The 30-day SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio surged from 0.4 in February to 1.8 during the rebound, indicating that demand was insufficient to absorb the wave of profit-taking. A sustained level above 2 is needed to signal a genuine recovery in buying pressure.
• The 30-day cost basis of $78,200 has shifted from support to overhead resistance, while the cost basis of the accumulation cohort from February to April, at $71,400, now serves as the most immediate support level in this pullback.
• On-chain spot market indicators have weakened in recent weeks, with the total spot CVD remaining predominantly negative and Coinbase activity persistently lagging. This suggests that while sporadic overseas speculative demand may emerge, US institutional spot participation remains weak.
• CME futures open interest has continued to recover alongside the price, indicating improving institutional participation in the derivatives market, although spot demand remains indecisive near the upper end of the current range.
• The accumulation momentum of US spot ETFs has recently begun to slow. The 30-day change in ETF holdings has flattened notably after strong buying in April and early May, suggesting that US institutional spot demand is becoming less aggressive near the upper end of the current price range.
• Implied volatility is rebuilding from low levels, concentrated at the front end, while longer-dated expectations remain stable. Realized volatility continues to decline, widening the volatility risk premium and making protection relatively cheap.
• Options positioning remains defensive. Skew indicates a resurgence in demand for downside protection, while the short gamma zone near $75,000 leaves spot prices susceptible to amplified hedging flows and sharper price movements.

Macro Insights

The macro backdrop has tightened notably, with markets facing a stronger US dollar, higher yields, and renewed inflationary pressures from the energy market. The DXY has risen to a six-week high, the US 10-year yield has climbed above 4.6%, and the 30-year yield is also heading towards multi-year highs, reflecting a sharp repricing of interest rate expectations. Markets now assign a higher probability to a Fed rate hike before year-end, reversing prior expectations for easing.

Commodities are reinforcing the tighter macro shock. Oil remains elevated due to Middle East supply risks, keeping inflation expectations active and limiting room for rate cuts. Gold is struggling to rally further amid rising real yields and a stronger dollar, indicating that safe-haven flows are being challenged by tighter financial conditions.

For digital assets, the landscape remains constructive but more fragile. Bitcoin's resilience in the face of higher yields and a stronger dollar suggests underlying demand persists, but the macro tailwind is no longer unequivocally bullish. Sustained upside may require oil to stabilize, yields to retreat, and the DXY to lose momentum, thereby allowing liquidity conditions to ease and risk appetite to expand again.

On-Chain Insights

Testing the Bull-Bear Divide

The recent rally to $82,000 marked a significant recapture of the True Market Mean at $78,300. This price model tracks the average cost basis of actively traded Bitcoin supply and historically serves as the divide between bear and bull markets. Recapturing this level is necessary, but not sufficient, for a structural shift. By convention, the pre-bull phase requires sustained consolidation around this model for weeks to months to confirm a credible trend change. A single decisive break above the True Market Mean, while constructive, does not yet meet this requirement.

Therefore, any deeper pullback from current levels would redefine the recent rally as a local high within a continuing bear market. This structure has appeared multiple times in previous cycles and remains a higher-probability outcome until sustained buying pressure emerges.

Profit-Taking Outpaces Demand

Delving into the internal mechanics of the recent rally, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio provides a precise measure of market health. This metric tracks the ratio of the dollar value of realized profits to realized losses on-chain, with values above 1 indicating profit-taking dominance and values below 1 reflecting loss realization dominance.

The 30-day SMA of this ratio surged from the February low of 0.4 to 1.8, reflecting a natural shift in spending behavior following the price recovery. However, the market's inability to sustain momentum amid this rising wave of profit-taking suggests that demand has not yet recovered sufficiently to absorb sellers capitalizing on the bounce.

A decisive and sustained stabilization of the 30-day (or 90-day) SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio above 2 for multiple weeks would constitute a more meaningful signal of genuine buyer conviction recovery and the market's capacity to absorb distribution pressure without rolling over.

Cost Basis Levels Define New Range

As prices have fallen back below the True Market Mean, the realized price metric segmented by holding period provides a granular framework for mapping the most immediate support and resistance levels. This model tracks the average purchase price of coins categorized by their holding duration, directly mapping behavioral anchors of different investor cohorts onto the price chart. The cost basis of the most recent 30-day accumulation wave, which fueled the rally’s momentum, is approximately $78,200. With the price now below this level, this cohort has transitioned into unrealized losses, turning the former support floor into an overhead supply zone that adds selling pressure on any bounce attempt.

Below spot, the cost basis of investors who accumulated during the consolidation period from February to April (now classified as 1-3 month holders) sits near $71,400. As this group's profit margin shrinks and faces increasing incentives to protect gains against further deterioration, this level represents the most likely near-term support.

Off-Chain Insights

Spot Selling Pressure Returns

The latest spot flow data continues to show weak underlying demand, with the aggregate exchange spot CVD remaining negative during the recent pullback towards the $77,000 high. This indicates that selling pressure continues to outweigh aggressive spot buying on major trading venues.

Recently, Binance spot flows have modestly recovered from deeply negative levels, while Coinbase activity remains relatively subdued. This divergence suggests stronger overseas speculative participation, while US institutional spot demand lacks conviction near current price levels.

Despite Bitcoin's relative structural resilience, the latest spot positioning data indicates that broad-based spot accumulation has not yet fully re-emerged.

CME Recovers While ETF Demand Slows

CME futures open interest has steadily risen alongside Bitcoin's recovery to the low $80,000s, indicating that institutional traders are rebuilding exposure after the February sell-off. The revival in CME activity suggests that institutional participation in the derivatives market is growing, even though macro conditions remain restrictive.

Meanwhile, the accumulation momentum of US spot ETFs has begun to slow. The 30-day change in ETF holdings has flattened notably after strong buying in April and early May, suggesting that spot demand from the US institutional cohort is becoming less aggressive near current price levels.

The result is a market increasingly driven by futures positioning rather than strong spot accumulation. The recent upside continues to attract leveraged participation, but the pace of fresh spot buying has slowed as Bitcoin approaches the upper end of its current range.

Weak Spot, Crowded Longs

The latest order flow data reveals that the pullback beneath the surface is primarily spot-driven. Futures open interest has only moderately declined, remaining high relative to the last time Bitcoin traded in this range, while the weakness in spot CVD is far more pronounced than in futures CVD. This suggests the recent downside is driven more by persistent spot selling than by aggressive short positioning.

The funding rate reinforces this picture. Instead of resetting as the price fell, the funding rate has remained positive and recently started to strengthen again, indicating that leveraged longs continue to pay fees to maintain their exposure during the weakness.

Collectively, the market maintains elevated long positioning despite weak spot demand, a configuration typically resolved through either spot buying or a broader derivatives reset.

Implied Volatility Rebuilds from Lows

Starting with implied volatility, the market is beginning to price in volatility again, but from a low base.

Bitcoin's implied volatility across tenors has risen from last week, with the front end moving from 32% to 36%. The 6-month tenor remains relatively stable near 42%, indicating that longer-dated expectations have changed little despite recent spot price movements.

The chart shows the front end reacting notably as spot moves within its trading range, while the back end remains anchored. This suggests traders are paying slightly higher premiums for short-dated options but have not yet priced in a broader shift in volatility.

With implied volatility still at relatively low recent levels, hedging costs remain cheap, particularly for short-term event risk.

The current structure reflects a modest rebuilding of short-term volatility demand, while longer-dated expectations remain stable and largely unchanged.

Realized Volatility Declines, Volatility Risk Premium Widens

As implied volatility rebuilds modestly, realized volatility continues its downward trend.

Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility currently stands at 27%, continuing its overall decline in recent weeks. Meanwhile, 1-month implied volatility remains near 37%, meaning implied volatility is significantly higher than realized volatility.

This pushes the 1-month volatility risk premium back towards 10 volatility points, the highest level in recent weeks. The right side of the chart shows a steady widening, driven more by the continued compression of realized volatility as spot price action stabilizes than by aggressive implied buying.

For hedgers, the key takeaway is that despite the recent rebuilding of implied volatility, the cost of protection remains relatively cheap.

The current structure reflects a market where realized volatility is declining faster than implied volatility can reprice lower, allowing the volatility risk premium to continue widening.

25 Delta Skew Shows Increased Downside Demand

While implied volatility is beginning to rebuild modestly, skew indicates that traders are still primarily bidding for protection rather than upside exposure.

Bitcoin's 25 delta skew has become more bearish over the past week, with traders paying a higher premium for downside protection across all tenors. This shift is most pronounced at the front end, where skew has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a significant increase in demand for short-dated put options.

Longer tenors also show higher put premiums, though to a lesser extent, with the 6-month tenor remaining near the 10% range. This suggests the market is not only hedging short-term risks but also maintaining a broader preference for downside protection.

The current skew structure reflects a distinctly defensive tilt, with short-term hedging demand rebuilding even as implied volatility remains relatively low.

Gamma Exposure Shows Vulnerable Price Zone

The largest short gamma cluster is located near the $75,000 strike price, with approximately $2.5 billion in negative exposure below the current spot price of $77,500. Another significant short gamma cluster remains near $82,000 with exposure close to $2 billion, although nearly $2 billion in positive gamma is spread across three strikes above spot, creating resistance before reaching the higher short gamma acceleration zone at $82,000.

This structure makes spot prices more sensitive to sharp downward moves near the major negative gamma strike of $75,000, where dealer hedging flows could amplify weakness. This accumulation aligns with recent flow activity. Put buying accounted for 55.5% of taker premium flow over the past 7 days and over 90% in the past 24 hours, demonstrating a clear rotation towards downside hedging.

The current gamma distribution reflects a more fragile structure, where concentrated put demand creates critical zones that could amplify volatility if spot re-enters them.

Conclusion

Bitcoin remains in a structurally constructive position, but the latest positioning and flow data indicate that momentum is becoming increasingly selective beneath the surface. Institutional futures participation continues to recover, and prices remain resilient above key support levels. However, broad spot demand has not yet fully re-accelerated, particularly at US institutional venues.

Meanwhile, options positioning and volatility markets point to a more cautious environment forming near the upper end of the current range. The combination of weaker aggregate spot accumulation, softer ETF momentum, and renewed demand for downside hedging suggests the market is still searching for a stronger catalyst to sustain an expansion above the low $80,000s.

In summary, the broader trend remains constructive, but the latest data suggests the market is increasingly driven by positioning and derivatives activity rather than broad-based spot conviction. Until liquidity conditions improve further and stronger spot demand re-emerges, Bitcoin may continue to experience choppier price action within its current range.