Why is HYPE still surging? Has it peaked?

Asher

Odaily资深作者

@Asher_0210

2026-05-20 01:29

本文約4152字，閱讀全文需要約6分鐘

The Hope of the Entire Village: Hyperliquid Expands from Perp DEX to a Full-Category On-Chain Trading System.

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Core Thesis: HYPE's continuous rise, outperforming BTC and BNB, has shifted its core narrative from a high-performance decentralized exchange token to a market repricing based on its role as an on-chain comprehensive trading system with a broader value capture pathway.
Key Factors:
1. The launch of Hyperliquid ETF products by 21Shares and Bitwise provides a compliant capital entry point. Bitwise will also use a portion of its management fee income to purchase and stake HYPE, creating potential sustained buying pressure.
2. Following the return of USDC to Hyperliquid, the protocol shares USDC reserve yields through partnerships with Coinbase and Circle. Market estimates suggest this could generate daily buying pressure of approximately $440,000 for HYPE.
3. On its first day, the HIP-4 prediction market saw BTC-related contract trading volume reach $6.15 million. By requiring 1 million HYPE to be staked to create markets, it strengthens demand for and value capture by HYPE.
4. The platform's open interest in RWA trading has risen to a record high of $2.6 billion, indicating that Hyperliquid's trading boundaries have expanded beyond crypto assets into real-world assets.
5. If the U.S. SEC introduces exemptions for tokenized stock trading, it would provide a compliant boost for Hyperliquid's existing RWA business, further raising the platform's long-term market ceiling.
6. On-chain data reveals a standoff between long and short whales with over $60 million in HYPE positions, suggesting short-term price swings could be influenced by leveraged liquidations, but long-term fundamental support remains strong.

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

In the current crypto market, if there is one altcoin that can excite the market, it is likely HYPE.

Market data shows that HYPE's exchange rates against BTC and BNB have hit new all-time highs, with HYPE/BTC now at 0.0006249 and HYPE/BNB at 0.075. This indicates that HYPE's strength is not merely following a market rebound but consistently outperforming major crypto assets like BTC and BNB.

In the past, external understanding of Hyperliquid was mostly limited to a high-performance Perp DEX. However, capital now appears to be betting not just on a decentralized trading platform's token but on Hyperliquid's ability to integrate more asset types, more liquidity, and more trading scenarios into the same on-chain trading system.

HYPE's price performance reflects the market's reevaluation of Hyperliquid's value.

This article by Odaily Planet Daily will break down the bullish logic behind its rise through several key changes.

From THYP to BHYP: HYPE's Compliant Buy-Side Opens Up

The first external catalyst for HYPE's recent rally is the opening of the ETF channel.

Currently, two asset management institutions have launched ETF products centered around Hyperliquid. On May 12, 21Shares listed the Hyperliquid ETF under the ticker THYP. On May 15, Bitwise listed the Hyperliquid ETF under the ticker BHYP. Data shows that as of May 18 Eastern Time, 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF THYP had a total net inflow of $12.901 million; Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF BHYP had a total net inflow of $2.0446 million.

More importantly, Bitwise did not stop at issuing the ETF. Yesterday, Bitwise announced that it will allocate 10% of the management fee income from its BHYP Hyperliquid ETF to hold HYPE on its corporate balance sheet, with the HYPE holdings also being staked.

This transforms the ETF narrative from a simple product launch into a potential source of sustained buying pressure. The larger the ETF scale, the higher the management fee income, theoretically increasing the amount Bitwise uses to accumulate HYPE. In the short term, this capital may not immediately sway the price, but long-term, it connects ETF growth, asset manager revenue, and HYPE holdings.

In other words, the ETF brings HYPE not just one-time hype but a new capital channel. HYPE is transitioning from a native crypto asset to an on-chain trading platform token whose price can be influenced by traditional capital.

USDC Returns to Hyperliquid, Adding Over $400,000 in Potential Daily Buy Pressure for HYPE

The second reason for HYPE's recent rise is that with USDC returning to Hyperliquid, the market is recalculating the protocol's future stable yields and whether these yields can continue to flow into HYPE buybacks.

According to Hyperliquid's official announcement, Coinbase will act as a capital deployer, and Circle is responsible for deploying CCTP and native cross-chain infrastructure. Both parties have committed to staking HYPE to activate AQAv2. This means that the return of USDC is not just a routine stablecoin integration but a new mechanism established by Coinbase, Circle, and Hyperliquid around native USDC, cross-chain liquidity, and reserve yield distribution.

The key point is that Coinbase will subsequently share most of the USDC reserve yield with the Hyperliquid protocol. Although the official profit-sharing ratio has not been disclosed, referencing the previous yield distribution mechanism for USDH, Hyperliquid could potentially receive about 90% of the reserve yield. Therefore, the market interprets AQAv2 as a protocol-based profit-sharing mechanism for USDC reserve yields established by Hyperliquid.

According to community estimates, based on a $4.7 billion scale and a 3.8% annualized yield, the USDC reserve yield corresponds to roughly $160 million in annualized income, translating to approximately $440,000 in daily HYPE buyback pressure. Once the AQAv2 interface is fully operational, Hyperliquid will no longer rely solely on trading fees for HYPE buybacks but may gain a relatively stable source of cash flow.

This is where the return of USDC truly impacts HYPE's pricing. Previously, HYPE's buyback intensity depended mainly on trading volume; the more active the trading, the stronger the protocol's income and buyback capability. However, with the addition of USDC reserve yields, HYPE's buy-side source no longer depends solely on trading fees but also on how much stablecoin liquidity Hyperliquid can attract. In other words, fee-based buybacks represent platform trading activity, while USDC reserve yield buybacks represent the platform's capital absorption capacity. The market's repricing of HYPE likely stems from the observation that HYPE's buyback story no longer relies solely on trading heat.

Hyperliquid Integrates HIP-4, Entering the Prediction Market Arena

Beyond RWA, Hyperliquid has also set its sights on one of this year's hottest crypto sectors – prediction markets.

On May 2, Hyperliquid launched HIP-4 Outcome Markets on its mainnet, initially offering BTC binary outcome contracts. Simply put, users can trade on whether the BTC price will be above or below a specified price at a certain point in time. The contract price fluctuates between 0.001 and 0.999, reflecting the market's pricing of the event's probability. Settlement is 1 if the event occurs, and 0 if it does not.

Data from Predictefy shows that on the first day of HIP-4's launch, trading volume for BTC price-related event contracts reached $6.15 million. Within this specific niche, Hyperliquid's trading volume has already far surpassed comparable markets on Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction platforms.

For HYPE, the significance of HIP-4 goes beyond adding another product feature. It connects the prediction market with HYPE's staking, fee, and buyback mechanisms. As designed, for future permissionless deployment of prediction events, market creators must stake 1 million HYPE, which is higher than the 500,000 HYPE required for deploying perpetual markets under HIP-3. Each staking slot can support rolling and periodic markets, which can be reused after settlement. However, staked assets may be slashed in cases of oracle manipulation, abnormal market conditions, or prolonged downtime.

Therefore, HIP-4 provides HYPE with more than just a conceptual boost from prediction markets; it offers a more direct path for value capture. More permissionless prediction events mean more HYPE staking demand, and more trading volume means more fee income, which ultimately flows back into Hyperliquid's existing buyback logic.

RWA Open Interest Hits New Highs: Hyperliquid's Ceiling Extends Beyond Perp DEX

Beyond ETFs and USDC yield returns, RWAs are pushing Hyperliquid's trading boundaries further outward.

Data indicates that the open interest in RWA trading on the Hyperliquid platform has risen to $2.6 billion, a new all-time high and double the figure from two months ago. This data suggests that Hyperliquid is now handling not just trading demand for crypto assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL but is also seeing real-world assets form a significant scale within its on-chain trading system.

This is crucial for HYPE's valuation. If Hyperliquid were merely a Perp DEX, its valuation anchor would primarily be the crypto cycle, trading volume, and fee income. However, RWAs open up another dimension, where stocks, commodities, precious metals, and pre-IPO assets could become subject to 24/7 on-chain trading.

The significance of RWAs for Hyperliquid is not just adding more trading pairs; it pulls the platform out of the internal competition within the crypto market. Perp DEXs compete on capturing more crypto trading volume, while RWAs compete on bringing off-chain asset trading demand onto the chain. If Hyperliquid can continue to grow this segment, HYPE's pricing will no longer solely follow the crypto market trading cycle but will begin to be tied to the larger demand for real-world asset trading.

US SEC Plans Exemption for Tokenized Stocks, Adding to RWA Narrative

Potential regulatory easing by the US SEC regarding tokenized stocks is also raising Hyperliquid's long-term ceiling. Reports indicate that the SEC is preparing to introduce innovative exemptions for tokenized stock trading, allowing tokens linked to publicly traded company stocks to trade on crypto platforms. In some cases, the platform may not need to obtain full broker-dealer or exchange registration, and third-party issued tokenized stocks might not require the listed company's consent.

For Hyperliquid, this doesn't mean starting from scratch with tokenized stocks; it adds regulatory imagination to the RWA direction it is already pursuing. On the Hyperliquid platform, trading in real-world assets like stocks and pre-IPO assets has begun to scale, with RWA open interest reaching new highs. If US regulators genuinely open a testing window for tokenized stocks, on-chain trading demand in this sector could be further amplified.

For Hyperliquid, the clearer the regulatory boundaries, the lower the friction for real-world asset on-chain trading. The entity best positioned to capture this growth is often not a single asset issuer but the platform that can host the order book, liquidity, and settlement. If tokenized stocks move from grey-area experiments to compliant growth drivers, Hyperliquid's already operational RWA business will not just be an early experiment but could become the main battleground for the next phase of on-chain trading competition.

Fundamentals Strengthening, but Short-Term Enters Long-Short Battle Zone

HYPE's bullish logic is becoming clearer. ETFs open the door for compliant capital inflows, the return of USDC brings potential buyback increments, and RWAs, prediction markets, and tokenized stocks continue to expand Hyperliquid's trading boundaries. These changes all point in one direction: Hyperliquid is no longer just a Perp DEX; it is expanding into a larger on-chain trading system.

However, a solid long-term thesis does not mean short-term prices will rise in a straight line. According to on-chain data, HYPE is currently witnessing a significant long-short whale standoff, with the top 1 and top 2 whale positions acting as counterparties to each other, totaling over $60 million in size. Longs are betting on Hyperliquid's subsequent growth potential, while shorts are betting on a correction after the rapid short-term price increase. As whale positions enlarge, HYPE's short-term price may no longer be purely based on fundamentals but will also be influenced by leverage liquidations, funding rates, and market sentiment.

Therefore, predicting HYPE's short-term price trend is difficult and largely depends on which side of the long-short battle is forced to capitulate first. However, taking a longer-term view, HYPE's fundamentals remain promising. Hyperliquid continues to expand its trading assets, capital inflows, and revenue streams, while HYPE increasingly serves as a core value-bearing asset through buybacks, staking, and fee capture.