Conversation with "Wood Sister" Cathie Wood: The Next Bull Run is Coming

Compiled & Translated: Shenchao TechFlow

Guest: Cathie Wood, CEO & CIO of ARK Invest

Host: Robbie

Podcast Source: The Rollup

Original Title: Cathie Wood: The Next Bull Market Is Here

Published Date: April 28, 2026

Editor's Note

Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, recently appeared on The Rollup. During the interview, she provided clear Bitcoin price predictions: a base case of $730,000 by 2030 and a bull case of $1.5 million, with the market currently in a bottoming phase. On-chain analysis indicates an absolute bottom between $50,000 and $55,000. She also proposed a macro judgment overlooked by the market: AI training costs are declining 75% annually, and inference costs are falling 85%-95% per year, which will trigger a wave of "good deflation." According to Trueflation (a blockchain-based real-time inflation indicator), core inflation has already dropped to 1.3%. She believes the Federal Reserve will likely be forced to pivot to easing, acting as a catalyst for the next wave in digital assets. Additionally, she revealed that ARK's crypto research team has used Claude Co-work to reduce quarterly report production time by 75%, arguing that the payment layer for Agentic AI will inevitably be built on blockchain.

Key Quotes

Bitcoin Pricing and Cycle Judgment

• "Our base case is that Bitcoin will reach $730,000 by 2030, and $1.5 million in the bull case."
• "A 50% decline isn't a bear market. Compared to the 85% or 95% drops before, this is child's play."
• "Our on-chain analyst David Puell says the absolute bottom is between $50,000 and $55,000. But I doubt we'll get there."
• "The correlation coefficient between gold and Bitcoin is only 0.14. In the past two cycles, gold has led before Bitcoin, and it's the same this time."

Stablecoins and DeFi Evolution

• "CZ and I both agree that from the early days of Bitcoin to now, the biggest surprise has been the rise of stablecoins."
• "Ironically, the delay of the CLARITY Act has given Tether and Circle more time to enjoy network effects."
• "We originally thought Bitcoin would play the role stablecoins now occupy, especially in emerging markets. But stablecoins became the bridge from traditional finance to DeFi."

Turning Point for Institutional Adoption

• "Larry Fink's transformation is too complete. He finally understands that the internet never had a financial layer, and tokenization can fill that gap. His shift gave permission to the entire industry: if he says it's important, I better go learn about it."
• "We were laughed at when we first bought Bitcoin in 2015. Many thought it was just a marketing gimmick. That collective mockery actually made me more confident we were right."

Macro and Deflation Logic

• "The federal funds rate has already been cut by 175 basis points, but the market narrative still says the Fed is too hawkish."
• "AI training costs are falling 75% annually, and inference costs are declining 85% to 95% a year. We will see a massive wave of benign deflation."

Intersection of Agentic AI and Blockchain

• "In the future, we'll have a bunch of chatbots working for us. We'll have to pay Claude, pay the robots providing data. This is all machine-to-machine, and a blockchain payment system is the only viable infrastructure."
• "Our crypto team uses Claude Co-work for quarterly reports, cutting production time by 75%. All that saved time is released for deep research."

ARK's Five Innovation Platforms Theory

Robbie: You have five innovation platforms, spawning 15 technologies, now converging. Before we dive into digital assets and public chains, can you give us a macro view of how you see disruptive innovation?

Cathie Wood: The seeds of everything today were planted early in my career. In the 80s and 90s, I watched these seeds being sown. But cloud computing didn't really emerge until AWS launched in 2006. Back then, I tried explaining what cloud computing was to investors and advisors; to them, it was pure fantasy. AI's big breakthrough didn't come until 2012 with deep learning and then the Transformer architecture in 2017 (which later spawned ChatGPT and natural language programming).

The late 90s saw too much capital chasing too few opportunities; the timing was too early. But today, the situation is completely reversed. All five innovation platforms and 15 technologies are ready, yet investors are filled with fear. As a fund manager, I prefer operating in this environment over the crazy bubble period back then.

Today's valuations are much lower than in the bubble era. The technology is ready, and most critically, the cost decline is astonishing, meaning these technologies can reach more industries and individuals.

I founded ARK in 2014 because, after the internet bubble burst and the 2008 financial crisis, institutional investors became extremely risk-averse. The entire industry shifted to passive investing, fueling the great ETF boom. Even in active management, fund managers heavily rely on benchmark indices to screen targets. But we don't do that; our screening criteria are original research.

Traditional finance research teams are organized by industry, like five consumer analysts, five healthcare analysts, and so on. But we believe to properly grasp innovation, the research team must be organized around those 15 technologies because these technologies cut across all industries.

Robbie: Why are investors so scared? Is it because they haven't figured out the organizational structure to understand these technology convergences?

Cathie Wood: This convergence is indeed confusing. Tesla is the best example. Most research directors assign Tesla to an auto analyst, but it should at least go to a tech analyst, or more accurately, to a team of three collaborating: a robotics analyst, an energy storage analyst, and an AI analyst. Giving it to experts in internal combustion engines and manual driving is the wrong direction. We are transitioning from the old world to electrification and autonomous driving.

AI is developing so fast, impacting so many industries simultaneously, that it's a shock in itself. Research directors need time to figure out how to reorganize. They need to allocate people by technology direction while building a culture of collaboration. In traditional institutions, if a stock is assigned to an auto analyst, no one else can touch it. This model must change because technologies are converging, and analysts must collaborate to understand these companies' potential.

Crypto Asset Allocation Logic

Robbie: We also see a lot of tribalism in the crypto industry. The digital asset story clearly starts with Bitcoin. When you founded ARK in 2014, Bitcoin was still finding its footing. How did you view Bitcoin back then? Was it already suitable for institutional allocation?

Cathie Wood: Not at that time. Actually, I started paying attention to and discussing Bitcoin at my previous company, purely out of curiosity. I brought the analyst most obsessed with Bitcoin to ARK; that's our current Chief Futurist, Brett Winton.

When I founded ARK in 2014, we only had four innovation platforms, merging AI and blockchain into a category called 'Next Generation Internet.' That's also how our fund got its name ARK. At the time, AI had just seen a breakthrough in deep learning and was still very new. Blockchain excited us more, but we weren't sure if it deserved to stand alone.

In 2015, we collaborated with Art Laffer (the proposer of the Laffer Curve, a monetary economist and student of Nobel laureate Robert Mundell) to publish our first Bitcoin white paper. The core question was: Can Bitcoin fulfill the three functions of money—medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account?

Art told me something back then: 'This is what I've been waiting for since the US closed the gold window in 1971.' I asked him how big this idea was. He countered: 'How big is the US monetary base?' It was $4.5 trillion at the time, while Bitcoin's network value was only $6 billion. He was talking about trillions. I made a personal investment right then.

We needed permission from the NYSE and SEC to find the best exposure for our clients. We ultimately found it through GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust). Bitcoin was $250 then. In the summer of 2015, when Greece threatened to leave the EU, we built our first position because we noticed Bitcoin rose whenever such geopolitical news emerged. It can act as both a risk-on asset and a safe haven, playing different roles at different times.

Robbie: Looking back at that era, the dominant narrative was 'institutions are coming to buy our Bitcoin.' Now, in 2026, we've seen the adoption of ETFs, stablecoins, tokenized assets, the explosion of permissioned chains, and major institutions launching actual products. The integration of traditional institutional adoption with crypto-native culture and infrastructure is the biggest convergence in digital assets.

But one interesting phenomenon is: crypto natives, who should be the most convicted, are now filled with apathy and internal disappointment. Meanwhile, the big institutions and large companies newly entering are more bullish. How do you interpret this state?

Cathie Wood: Several things are happening simultaneously. When we bought Bitcoin in 2015, we were genuinely ridiculed. Many thought it was just a marketing gimmick. When so many people mock or dismiss you, it actually piques my interest more.

Now the landscape is like this: Bitcoin owns the global monetary system赛道. In DeFi, Ethereum and Solana dominate, and Hyperliquid (a decentralized perpetual contract trading platform) is also forming its格局.

Regarding institutional adoption, I believe Larry Fink's transformation is a key turning point. He once led the bearish chorus against Bitcoin, but his shift has been incredibly complete. It stems from a vision: the tokenization of everything. He finally understood that the internet was built without a financial layer because no one back then imagined e-commerce or online investing; it was just about information exchange, and some even thought it was only for gambling and illegal activities.

Fink's awakening gave the entire industry permission. Before, we had to fight against him and Jamie Dimon (CEO of JPMorgan). But after Fink turned, the industry reacted: if he says this is important, we need to learn it too. Moreover, BlackRock has Aladdin (a technology platform serving the asset management industry). If Fink says tokenization is important, then all asset management firms using Aladdin will have to follow suit.

Another crucial development for DeFi is the evolution of stablecoins. I just did a podcast with CZ (Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance) yesterday. We both agree that from Bitcoin's early days to now, the biggest surprise has been the rise of fiat-backed stablecoins. This was quite heretical in the early crypto ecosystem. But now even Bitcoin OGs fully support it. Giancarlo and Paolo from Tether were among the earliest OGs.

Stablecoins have become the bridge from traditional finance into DeFi. We originally thought Bitcoin would play this role, especially in emerging markets. But even there, the Bitcoin community sees stablecoins as a humanitarian 'transitional step' into the crypto world because most emerging market residents can't handle Bitcoin's volatility; they live day-to-day on their income. As their wealth grows, they'll naturally move from stablecoins to more diverse investments within the crypto ecosystem.

There's also the big question: will stablecoins be a winner-take-all market? Network effects suggest yes. Ironically, the delay of the CLARITY Act has given Tether and Circle more time to accumulate network effects. CZ believes there will be an explosion of stablecoins, and our team—Lorenzo, David, and Ray—agree. But whether there's an explosion or not, everyone thinks it will ultimately consolidate to a few winners.

Why Tokenization is the Core Narrative

Robbie: We've been discussing on the show that the tokenization wave starts with non-speculative assets, moves along the risk curve to treasuries, and now we're talking about tokenized equities. In your Big Ideas 2026 report, you wrote that the global tokenized asset market could exceed $11 trillion by 2030. My question is: as these assets come on-chain, will they ultimately fall into DeFi protocols? Where do you think the value primarily accumulates?

Cathie Wood: We tend to agree with your view. In innovation, a typical divergence occurs: pure new players are faster, more agile, and more creative; traditional players embrace new technology to reduce costs, improve efficiency, and increase productivity. Within the traditional camp, the most aggressive and visionary companies will use this to consolidate traditional markets.

The best example is Walmart and Amazon. During the internet bubble, everyone thought traditional retail would be destroyed. Indeed, many boutique stores were eliminated, but Walmart used the internet to build its online business (acquired Jet.com) and instead consolidated traditional retail space. Amazon is a fast-growing giant, but both coexist. Now, Walmart is more aggressive with drone delivery than Amazon because it collaborates better with companies and regulators. Amazon was several drone technology generations ahead of Walmart but made some regulatory mistakes that slowed it down.

The same applies to the crypto world. Traditional players are embracing this technology. JPMorgan is particularly interesting. Jamie Dimon remains one of the biggest Bitcoin opponents in many ways, but he lets the tech team and client demand override his personal judgment.

On the pure DeFi player side: Ethereum, Solana, Hyperliquid—we are betting on them. We've bought some DATs (Digital Asset Tokens) for our ETFs, including Bitmine Immersion and Solana ecosystem's Soulmate. We know too many DATs have been created, and there will inevitably be mass elimination. We publish our trades daily. You can see us gradually adding back positions while pivoting within allowed limits to pure exposure in Ethereum and Solana. Some platform providers don't allow our flagship funds to hold Bitcoin ETFs or Ethereum/Solana ETFs, so we operate within those constraints.

DeFi will grow explosively. The distribution of economic value between Layer 1 and Layer 2 is still being contested, and we are watching closely. But we still favor the 'Big Four,' and now with WBTC able to migrate to other platforms, Bitcoin is in the mix too.

"Benign Deflation" and the Macro Liquidity Landscape

Robbie: People will say, we've heard Cathie is long-term bullish. But we're in a period of geopolitical turmoil. Stocks hit new highs yesterday, while Bitcoin is still hovering around $75,000. Raoul Pal tweeted that global liquidity is rising. How do you view crypto's lag relative to stocks and commodities? What's your macro liquidity judgment?

Cathie Wood: I wrote a letter at the beginning of the year that included an asset class correlation matrix. Many people think Bitcoin is highly correlated with gold because we call it 'digital gold,' but that's not the case. From 2019 (when institutional interest noticeably began to heat