Two key battles are being fought simultaneously, with BTC and HYPE facing imminent directional choices.

This week, the crypto market continues its high-level consolidation pattern, with intensified divergence between bulls and bears, making a directional choice imminent. Whether HYPE, after stabilizing and rebounding from endpoint 32 ($38.88), can break above $43.17 and challenge the previous high of $45.76 will be key to determining whether the daily wave V structure can continue. Meanwhile, BTC, having completed its D-wave rebound, faces a direct test at the core watershed zone of $79,500 to $80,600: A breakout signals a shift; resistance triggers a pullback. Once the direction is clear, the market may exhibit a relatively significant trending move.

The current market presents both opportunities and underlying risks. Avoid chasing highs and selling lows. Only by relying on clear structural judgment and strict discipline can one capture deterministic opportunities in a consolidating market and steadily progress.

Key Trading View Summary for This Week:

• In-depth analysis of HYPE's hourly-level price structure (see Part 1 for details)
• HYPE price forecast and short-term trading strategy for this week (see Part 2 for details)
• Multi-timeframe structure analysis for BTC (see Part 3 for details)
• BTC price forecast and mid-to-short-term trading strategies for this week (see Part 4 for details) 

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategy and Core Views:

•  HYPE Short-term Trading Result: Completed one short-term long trade (1x leverage) last week, yielding approximately 3.25% profit (see Table 1 for details).
• BTC Mid-term Trading Result Validation: Last week, the mid-term BTC strategy executed the planned position closing. After the price stabilized above the long-short ribbon, we fully closed the mid-term short positions initiated around $89,000 (1x leverage) near $75,500, resulting in a final profit of approximately 15.17%.
• BTC Price Forecast Validation: In last week's article, we indicated the market would maintain a wide-range consolidation between $73,500 and $79,000. The current market movement validates our previous forecast.

1. HYPE: In-Depth Analysis of Hourly Price Structure

HYPE_4-hour K-line Chart

Figure 1

1. As shown in Figure 1, the daily-level wave V uptrend initiated from the low of $34.44 on April 2 can be further subdivided into a five-segment upward structure on the 4-hour timeframe (segments 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, 31-32, 32-33). The market is currently running the 32-33 upward segment.

2. The 4-hour chart shows a key change in price action last week: endpoint 32 ($38.88) quickly broke below endpoint 30 ($40.17). Subsequently, the market found buying support near the strong support zone around $38.5, pushing the price back above $40.17. The focus now is on the sustainability of the rebound:

• If the price can continue to rally, sequentially breaking above $43.10 and the previous high of $45.76, the daily-level wave V uptrend initiated from the April 2 low will be extended.
• If the current rebound lacks strength and fails to break through to new highs, it could form a classic reversal structure: "correction breaks prior low, rebound fails to make new high." Confirmation of this pattern would suggest the daily uptrend that began on January 21 is likely over, potentially ushering in a daily-level correction cycle.

2. HYPE: This Week's Price Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy   

1. HYPE This Week's Price Forecast:

Core View on HYPE this week: Focus on the momentum and height of the rebound initiated from endpoint 32 ($38.88).

If the rebound is strong, breaking and stabilizing above the previous high of $45.76 (endpoint 31), it indicates strong buying power. The daily-level Wave V upward structure extends, potentially opening new upside space with the next resistance near $50.

If the rebound is weak and fails to surpass the previous high of $45.76, be wary of a technical pattern where the rebound fails to make a new high. This could indicate exhaustion of the daily uptrend initiated from the Jan 21 low, making $45.76 the potential peak of this rally, and the market may transition into a daily-level correction or consolidation phase.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week:

• Based on the forecasted overall uptrend, short-term operations should adhere to the principle of "Trade with the Trend, Buy on Dips."
• Utilize signals from our proprietary quantitative model, operating on the 30/60-minute timeframe, using 30% of capital to capture long entry opportunities.
• Entry Strategy: If HYPE's price breaks and stabilizes above $43.17 this week, concurrently with buy signals triggered by the two models, consider entering a long position, keeping position size below 30%, and strictly adhering to stop-loss discipline.

3. Bitcoin: Multi-Timeframe Structure Analysis

1. BTC Daily Level Structure Analysis: (Based on price action after the February 6, 2026 low)

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 2

From the daily structure perspective, the correction that began from the October 2025 high of $126,200 to the February 6 low of $60,000 has formed a clear A-B-C three-wave structure. The $80,600 level is technically significant, being not only the key low of November 21, 2025, but also the starting point of the subsequent B-wave rebound. Therefore, the current price faces resistance from the $79,500 to $80,600 zone, establishing this area as the market's core "watershed."

Wave D (Rebound): Based on daily structure analysis, the rebound from the February 6 low of $60,000 can be tentatively defined as Wave D. This rebound has been ongoing for approximately 80 trading days and reached a rebound high of $79,472 on April 22. 

As shown in Figure 2, this Wave D rebound has consistently run within a clear rising channel: its lower trendline connects the lows of February 6 and March 29, while the upper trendline is drawn parallel to the lower trendline through the March 17 high. Currently, the price is trading near the channel's upper trendline.

Summary: The current price faces dual resistance from the channel's upper trendline and the $79,500-$80,600 resistance zone. A direct breakout is expected to be challenging. Particular attention should be paid to whether the $79,500-$80,600 zone can be effectively breached. This will determine whether the rebound from the February 6 low represents a technical repair or a trend reversal, thereby confirming if $60,000 is the ultimate low of this daily correction cycle.

2. BTC Hourly-Level Structure Deep Dive: (Analyzing on the 4-hour timeframe)

Bitcoin _4-hour K-line Chart

Figure 3

Based on price evolution after the March 30 low of $65,000. As shown in Figure 3, BTC has been oscillating upwards since the March 30 low of $65,000. From endpoint 18 to endpoint 25, there are 7 structural segments: 18-19, 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, 22-23, 23-24, 24-25.

As shown in Figure 3: First, the structure from endpoint 18 to 25 is relatively complete (7 segments). Second, our proprietary Spread Trading Model has triggered a top warning signal at endpoint 25 (white dot in the chart). Third, comparing the upward momentum of adjacent segments 22-23 and 24-25, our Momentum Quantification Model has issued a bearish divergence signal.

Summary: Based on the hourly structure and the three reasons above, the probability of BTC encountering resistance and initiating a correction in this zone is relatively high. 

4. Bitcoin: This Week's Forecast and Trading Strategy

1. BTC This Week's Price Forecast:

Core View This Week: Focus on the outcome of testing the key resistance zone of $79,500 to $80,600.

• If the price breaks upward, wait for a confirmed stabilization before seeking entry opportunities.
• If it faces resistance and pulls back here, the primary support level is around $76,000. An effective breakdown of this level could trigger a daily-level correction.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

    • First Resistance Zone: $79,500 – $81,000 (Near the November 2025 low)  

    • Second Resistance Zone: $83,500 – $84,500 (Previous dense long-short order block) 

3. Key Support Levels:

    • First Support Level: ~$76,000         (Previous rebound high) 

    • Second Support Level: ~$73,500         (Previous key support level)   

    • Third Support Zone: $69,500 – $70,500 (Previous key support zone)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy (excluding sudden news impact)

①. Mid-term Strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 4

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 4, the current price has stabilized above the long-short ribbon. According to our strategy rules, we are pausing new mid-term positions this week and adopting a cash-holding, wait-and-see approach. We recommend patiently waiting for the market's direction to become clearer before making further decisions.

②. Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% of capital, set stop-loss points based on support and resistance levels, and seek "spread" trading opportunities (operating on the 30/60-minute timeframe).

③. Based on the assessment that the market is currently in a high-level consolidation with weakening upward momentum, short-term operations will continue to follow the principle of "Shorting the bounce." To dynamically manage the complex market evolution, we will strictly rely on signals from our proprietary trading models to prepare two specific action plans, Plan A and Plan B, in advance.

 • Plan A: Encounter Resistance on Bounce, Short at Highs.

    • Entry: When the price bounces into the $79,500-$80,600 zone, triggering a resistance signal combined with a model top signal, establish a 30% short position.

    • Risk Control: Initial stop-loss set above $81,000.

    • Exit: When the price falls to key support levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions for profit.

• Plan B: Breakout Short Following the Trend.

    • Entry: If the price continues to correct and effectively breaks the support near $76,000, combined with a model top signal, establish a 30% short position following the trend.

    • Risk Control: Initial stop-loss set above $77,500.

    • Exit: When the price falls to support levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions for profit.

5. HYPE: Trade Review

1. Short-Term Trade Review: (See Table 1)

Adhering strictly to the operational plan and signals from our proprietary Spread Trading Model and Momentum Quantification Model, we executed one short-term long trade last week, yielding a profit of 3.25%.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trade Details Summary: (Leverage * 1x)

Table 1

3. Short-Term Trade Review: (See Figure 5)

Entry Strategy: First, the prior price action completed a full 5-segment correction structure. Second, the Spread Trading Model issued a strong bottom warning signal in advance (red and white dots in the chart). Third, the Momentum Quantification Model triggered a bullish divergence signal. Therefore, we established a 30% long position at $39.91.

Exit Strategy: When the price encountered resistance near $42, and the Momentum Quantification Model triggered a bearish divergence signal, we fully closed the position around $41.21.

Summary: This trade yielded a successful profit of approximately 3.25%.

HYPE_60-minute K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantification Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 5 (Short-Term Trade Illustration)

6. Special Reminders 

1.   Upon entry: Immediately set the initial stop-loss.
2.   When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (break-even point) to ensure capital safety.
3.   When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4.   Continuous tracking: For every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Financial markets change rapidly. All market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. All viewpoints, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely as a personal trading journal, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market carries risks; invest cautiously. Do not make decisions based solely on this content.