Jefferies Warning: Legislative Uncertainty of the CLARITY Act May Trigger Crypto Market Volatility

According to the latest report from investment bank Jefferies, although the U.S. 《Clarity Act》 has passed a bipartisan vote of 15:9 in the Senate Banking Committee, it still faces significant obstacles in the subsequent legislative process. Political uncertainty could exacerbate crypto market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundaries for digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and is considered a core legislative framework for U.S. crypto market structure. Jefferies pointed out that if it passes smoothly, it would significantly boost institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.

Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a significant decline from 70% in mid-May, mainly due to disputes over ethics provisions, anti-money laundering scrutiny, and a tight Senate agenda. Analysts say that with only about 20 legislative days left before Congress recesses in August, it needs to complete steps such as coordinating versions between the House and Senate, procedural votes, and submitting to the President for signature. If it cannot advance before the recess, it may be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.

Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it will drive the expansion of tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, benefiting the development of markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, if delayed, it could suppress institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.

Additionally, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue affecting the stock performance of crypto-related public companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulation gradually becomes clearer, intensified competition among stablecoins in the future could still become a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)