Hawkish Fed Dot Plot Shocks Market: Gold V-Shaped Rebound, Bitcoin's Key Range Falls Between $64,000 and $65,000

Odaily Odaily reports that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin weakened rapidly after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% and released a hawkish dot plot, falling below the $64,000 mark and dropping about 4% from its intraday high at one point.

This meeting marks the fourth consecutive time the Fed has held rates steady, but the latest dot plot indicates a significantly more hawkish policy path: several officials expect that rate hikes might still be possible this year, further weakening the market's pricing of "rate cut expectations." Analysts believe this shift is more influential than the interest rate itself, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.

Market data shows that after the announcement, Bitcoin initially surged to around $66,400 before quickly reversing downward amid heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of approximately $63,870. Trading volume expanded notably, indicating active selling-driven decline. The price is currently consolidating near the lower end of the $63,600–$64,000 range, with no significant influx of bargain-hunting funds yet.

In stark contrast is the performance of gold. Spot gold briefly dipped to around $4,220 before being quickly bought back, reclaiming the $4,300 level and stabilizing near $4,321, demonstrating strong defensive properties and capital absorption capacity. Even amid a marginal easing of geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand remains resilient.

Market participants point out that the core divergence in this round of reactions lies in asset repricing: gold completed a rapid recovery under the same macro shock, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the key $64,000 level, indicating that risk assets are more sensitive to "higher rates for longer."

Overall, the market is transitioning from a phase of "loose expectations supporting risk assets" to one where "hawkish path suppresses valuations," with short-term risk appetite clearly cooling. The key observation point is whether Bitcoin can reclaim and stabilize above the $64,000–$65,000 range with increased volume; otherwise, it may continue its weak consolidation structure.