Fed Researchers Say Kalshi Data Can Provide Real-Time Reference for Policy Making

Odaily News: Three researchers from the Federal Reserve System published a paper on February 12, pointing out that data from the prediction market platform Kalshi can more timely reflect macroeconomic expectations and should be incorporated into the Federal Reserve's decision-making reference framework. The paper's authors include Anthony Diercks, Chief Economist of the Federal Reserve, research assistant Jared Dean Katz, and Johns Hopkins University researcher Jonathan Wright.

The study compared Kalshi data with traditional surveys and market-implied expectations, suggesting that Kalshi can provide high-frequency, continuously updated probability distributions for measuring risk-neutral probabilities of macroeconomic indicators such as interest rate decisions. The researchers noted that Kalshi responds more quickly following significant policy statements or economic data releases.

However, the report emphasizes that Federal Reserve research papers are internal discussion materials and do not represent official policy positions. (Cointelegraph)