Analysis: Bear Market Expected to Last Until Mid-2027, Closely Monitor the Crossover Signal of the 90-Day and 365-Day Moving Averages

Odaily News Crypto analyst Axel stated in a personal blog post that the current bear market cycle began from the all-time high of approximately $125,000 in October 2025 — this was confirmed by the Entity-Adjusted Liveliness indicator, which reached a cycle peak of 0.02676 in December 2025, showing a typical lag compared to price, and is now reversing downwards.

Historically, such reversals typically initiate an accumulation phase lasting from 1.1 to 2.5 years. The chart clearly shows the two previous accumulation cycles: the 2020 bear market lasted 1.1 years, and the 2022–2024 bear market lasted 2.5 years. Both started in exactly the same way, with the green line reversing from its peak and entering a sustained decline phase, followed by a downward price movement. The current pattern is structurally identical.

If historical patterns repeat, this accumulation phase will last at least until the end of 2026, with a more realistic expectation being mid-2027. The key confirmation signal is — the 90-day moving average reversing downwards and crossing below the 365-day moving average (0.02622) from above. Until this crossover occurs, the possibility of a mid-cycle reset and a resumption of the uptrend still exists.