Coinbase stock has plunged 30% year-to-date, Wall Street believes it is nearing a bottom

Original author: Jose Antonio Lanz

Original compilation: Chopper

Profit expectations were cut, yet stock prices moved higher. Yesterday, shares of Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) both rose by approximately 3-4%. This followed a report from Chicago-based investment bank William Blair, which lowered its revenue and earnings expectations for Coinbase but maintained an "Outperform" rating.

William Blair's core view is that the current negative factors are fully priced into the stock, and investors should continue to hold Coinbase.

The firm cut its 2026 revenue estimate for Coinbase by 12% and its 2027 estimate by 13%; adjusted EBITDA expectations for both years were slashed by 34%. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury stated that the company's earnings will bottom out in the second half of 2026 and recover in 2027. They advise investors to continue holding Coinbase as spot cryptocurrency trading volumes bottom out alongside Bitcoin.

William Blair predicts that Coinbase's full-year total trading volume will decline by approximately 44% to $669 billion, with a rebound of over 32% expected in 2027.

The firm believes there are structural differences between this cycle and 2022. Now, spot Bitcoin ETFs have launched, institutional capital is steadily entering the market, and the industry's regulatory framework is becoming more mature—positive factors that did not exist four years ago.

The report is also bullish on Coinbase's Ethereum Layer 2 network, Base, seeing it as a potential core profit growth driver. Derivatives and prediction markets further broaden revenue streams, making the business less reliant solely on spot trading. In Q1 alone, the annualized revenue from the retail derivatives business exceeded $200 million.

Not all institutions are bullish on COIN's short-term trajectory. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley lowered his price target for COIN from $170 to $155, maintaining a Neutral rating. He noted that key focuses for Q2 are prediction markets and perpetual contracts, with the World Cup driving a surge in prediction market volumes. He also cautioned that the market would closely watch the potential competitive impact from perpetual contracts in Q3.

COIN's stock price has fallen nearly 30% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has dropped about 26% over the same period. Circle debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025 at an issue price of $31, and its stock has declined 20% since the beginning of the year.

W-Bottom Pattern Forms: John Bollinger Predicts Imminent Significant Bitcoin Rally

Optimistic signals are also appearing on the technical front. John Bollinger, the creator of the widely-used Bollinger Bands volatility indicator and a veteran technical analyst, has been highlighting since early July that Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a key bottoming pattern.

On July 2nd, Bollinger posted on social platform X, pointing out a "W" double-bottom reversal structure on the chart: two lows forming a consolidation range with a rebound in between. Once the price breaks through the resistance level between the two bottoms, a bullish trend becomes established.

He described the current movement as a standard fractal structure, with a smaller W-bottom nested within a larger pattern, noting the same structure is visible on the weekly timeframe. However, he also objectively acknowledged the uncertainty: multiple bullish patterns have emerged during this bear market, only to be broken by selling pressure.

In his latest update, Bollinger stated that if this W-bottom is completed, it would be considered a clear signal of a trend reversal. This is his most definitive bullish signal to date, suggesting the move is no longer just a short-term bounce.

Earlier this year, Bollinger disclosed that his investment entity holds long Bitcoin positions, aligning his views with his holdings. Looking at the broader technical trend, Bitcoin's overall bearish structure has not yet reversed, but downward momentum is continuously weakening.

Has Bitcoin's Bottom Already Arrived?

A recent weekly report from on-chain data firm Glassnode indicates that the main source of selling pressure in the market this year—panicked selling by long-term holders—peaked two weeks ago and is now declining. This metric, which filters out intra-chain transfer noise and counts actual selling volumes by long-term holders, has turned downward for the first time in this cycle.

The price lows in June attracted significant buying interest, with Glassnode detecting collective accumulation and coin hoarding across wallets of various sizes. Bitcoin's negative correlation with the US Dollar Index has deepened further, and its correlation with US equities continues to weaken. The price sensitivity to macro-positive news has returned: following the lower-than-expected inflation data on Tuesday, Bitcoin's rally significantly outpaced major US stock indices.

For on-chain analysts and Wall Street institutions, a core question remains: the Bitcoin spot market has yet to see sustained buying pressure sufficient to confirm a reversal.

Derivatives positions continue to be closed out, long-term selling pressure is gradually easing, and the panic premium in the options market is narrowing. However, fresh capital is not flowing in on a large scale. William Blair predicts the inflection point for the cycle will be in 2027, forecasting that after a 44% plunge this year, Coinbase's trading volume will rebound by 32% next year.