8000 BTC khó nâng đỡ giá cổ phiếu, phá vỡ cổ phiếu ngược có thể cứu American Bitcoin không?

Original author: Liam Akiba Wright

Original compilation: Chopper, Foresight News

There is a contradiction in American Bitcoin's treasury asset strategy: the company's Bitcoin reserves continue to grow, while its stock price continues to weaken in the opposite direction. 

The company, deeply tied to Eric Trump, recently disclosed that its Bitcoin holdings increased from over 7,000 coins at the end of the first quarter to 8,000 coins. At the same time, the company announced a 1-for-15 reverse stock split, consolidating every 15 existing shares into 1 new share. A reverse stock split only raises the per-share trading price without changing the company's overall valuation, and the total market value of investors' holdings remains unchanged at the moment of the split.

This reverse stock split took effect after the market closed on July 2, with the new shares beginning adjusted trading on Nasdaq on July 6. On one hand, there is a massive reserve of 8,000 Bitcoins; on the other, the market is no longer willing to pay for the company's valuation. Even after completing the reverse stock split, the company's valuation can only stabilize if there is sustained capital recognition of its per-share Bitcoin reserve growth and mining business profitability. Conversely, if the market interprets this reverse stock split as a signal of weak individual stock demand and an unsustainable company strategy, the stock valuation will become even harder to support.

Bitcoin Reserves Should Have Supported the Stock Price, But Reality Poses Significant Resistance

American Bitcoin has accumulated a considerable treasury of Bitcoin assets. 

According to the company's Q1 2026 financial report filed with the U.S. SEC, the company's Bitcoin holdings increased from approximately 5,401 coins at the end of 2025 to 7,021 coins as of March 31. At the time, Eric Trump, co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer of the company, stated that the company actually held over 7,300 Bitcoins, placing it among the world's top publicly listed Bitcoin holding companies.

The financial report also disclosed that the company mined 817 Bitcoins independently in the first quarter and acquired an additional 803 Bitcoins over-the-counter. Even with the price of Bitcoin falling approximately 22% quarter-over-quarter, the gross profit margin of the mining business remained above 50%, and the cost of mining a single Bitcoin dropped to $36,200.

This operational model is important. Most Bitcoin treasury companies on the market rely solely on issuing additional shares to raise funds for buying coins. In contrast, American Bitcoin, relying on its mining operations, can acquire Bitcoin at a cost lower than the market spot price, and can accumulate more when funds and market conditions permit.

However, this financial report also exposed a problem: merely hoarding Bitcoin reserves is not enough to support the stock price. 

In the first quarter, the company's mining revenue was $62.1 million, with a net loss of $81.8 million, an adjusted EBITDA loss of $91.3 million, and impairment losses related to digital assets reaching as high as $117.2 million. Although the company can continuously produce and accumulate Bitcoin, investors will still weigh whether these additional reserves match the current stock valuation.

This milestone of holding 8,000 Bitcoins reinforces the company's narrative of reserve assets but cannot resolve the multiple negative factors facing the stock price.

American Bitcoin stated that the core purpose of this reverse stock split is to raise the per-unit price of its Class A common stock to meet Nasdaq's minimum bid price requirement. An 8-K filing submitted on June 22 showed that the shareholders' meeting initially approved a reverse stock split range of 5:1 to 40:1. After the annual shareholders' meeting, the board of directors finalized the split ratio at 15:1.

The company's proxy statement also listed multiple potential risks of this reverse stock split in advance:

• The increase in stock price may not necessarily match the reduction in total share count;
• The split may not attract new investors and could be interpreted negatively by the market;
• Stock liquidity could further shrink, increasing transaction costs for investors holding fractional shares.

The above risks significantly weaken the market appeal of the positive news regarding the 8,000 BTC holdings. Even if the company continuously accumulates Bitcoin, once investors judge that the company's valuation should be lowered, the secondary market performance of the individual stock will continue to weaken.

For a listed company holding a Bitcoin treasury, the stock price is its lifeline: a stable and strong stock price allows the company to issue additional shares at an ideal price for fundraising and use market capital to continuously increase its Bitcoin holdings.

The proxy statement also disclosed a second key hidden risk: after the reverse stock split is completed, the company's total authorized share capital remains unchanged. While the total number of outstanding shares will decrease, the maximum number of shares the company can issue remains the same, reserving a large number of shares for future issuance. The company stated that these shares could be used for financing, mergers and acquisitions, and other business needs, while also warning that future issuance would significantly dilute the equity of existing shareholders.

Even if the company does not launch an issuance immediately, the mere market expectation of 'a high probability of future equity financing' will continue to suppress the stock's performance.

Stock Valuation is the True Test

The core question in the current market is whether buying this stock can offer additional value compared to directly holding Bitcoin or choosing other simplified Bitcoin investment products.

On the bullish side, the reasoning is that American Bitcoin continuously increases its Bitcoin holdings, has a stable mining profitability model, manageable dilution from issuance, and market liquidity will gradually recover after the split. In this scenario, this reverse stock split is just an awkward but resolvable episode in the long-term strategy of accumulating coins.

The bearish reasons are equally apparent. If liquidity remains weak, the stock will continue to trade like a struggling small-cap company; or, if future financing offsets the benefits of reserve growth, the significance of the 8,000 Bitcoin milestone will be greatly diminished.

Investors can acknowledge the company's massive Bitcoin reserves while simultaneously lowering the company's overall valuation. As of July 12, the spot price of Bitcoin was slightly below $64,000, down nearly 50% from its all-time high in October 2025, with risk appetite sharply divided across the entire crypto market. In this environment, the market will not automatically grant a valuation premium simply because a company increases its Bitcoin holdings. The company must prove that holding its stock provides incremental value that cannot be obtained by directly buying Bitcoin.

American Bitcoin's core differentiated advantage lies in its ability to scale mining operations and accumulate coins at a low cost. Its core pressure point is whether this model can continue to increase holdings without issuing new shares, thereby avoiding dilution of existing shareholders.

The upcoming tests are: first, whether the stock's trading volume and liquidity can stabilize; second, whether the company will release a detailed document explaining the custody and holding method for its 8,000 Bitcoins; and third, whether subsequent financing actions can increase Bitcoin holdings per share, rather than simply using issuance funds to buy assets.

This company serves as a stress test sample for the entire crypto treasury sector. Political labels associated with Trump can attract market attention, and continuously increasing Bitcoin holdings can strengthen the treasury narrative, but they cannot solve the core underlying problems. The fact that the company needs a reverse stock split to maintain its exchange listing status itself exposes its fundamental weakness.

If capital continues to recognize the company's reserve expansion logic, the market will view this split as short-term pain, and the company is expected to continue expanding its Bitcoin balance sheet. However, once buying pressure weakens, the milestone of holding 8,000 BTC will be recognized by the market as a turning point where 'Bitcoin reserves and the company's stock price have severely diverged'.