Oracle (ORCL) Dự báo giá cổ phiếu 2026-2030: Lộ trình doanh thu OCI, mục tiêu giá 400 USD từ các nhà phân tích và rủi ro chính

特邀专栏作者

2026-06-07 13:30

Bài viết này có khoảng 5524 từ, đọc toàn bộ bài viết mất khoảng 8 phút

Được thúc đẩy bởi nhu cầu về cơ sở hạ tầng AI, cổ phiếu Oracle đã tăng giá nhanh chóng. Bài viết này phân tích vị thế thị trường của ORCL, triển vọng doanh thu, mục tiêu giá từ các nhà phân tích và các rủi ro chính từ năm 2026 đến 2030.

Tóm tắt AI

Mở rộng

Quan điểm chính: Oracle đang chuyển đổi từ một công ty cơ sở dữ liệu truyền thống thành một đối thủ cạnh tranh về cơ sở hạ tầng đám mây AI. Động lực cốt lõi cho sự tăng giá cổ phiếu là sự bùng nổ tăng trưởng của mảng kinh doanh cơ sở hạ tầng đám mây (OCI). Các nhà phân tích nhìn chung lạc quan, nhưng các dự báo mô hình có sự khác biệt, phụ thuộc chủ yếu vào báo cáo tài chính quý IV năm tài chính 2026 và việc thực hiện lộ trình doanh thu OCI (đạt 1440 tỷ USD vào năm tài chính 2030).
Các yếu tố chính:
1. Vào ngày 1 tháng 6 năm 2026, cổ phiếu Oracle tăng 9,9% trong một ngày lên gần 248 USD, khi thị trường "nâng cấp" định vị của nó thành một đối thủ cạnh tranh về cơ sở hạ tầng đám mây AI.
2. 35 nhà phân tích Phố Wall duy trì khuyến nghị "mua", với mục tiêu giá trung bình 12 tháng là 261,29 USD, và Guggenheim đưa ra mục tiêu giá cao nhất là 400 USD.
3. Trong quý I năm tài chính 2026, doanh thu OCI đạt 3,3 tỷ USD (tăng 54% so với cùng kỳ), và lượng hợp đồng tồn đọng (RPO) đạt 455 tỷ USD (tăng 359% so với cùng kỳ), mức cao kỷ lục.
4. Chủ tịch Larry Ellison cam kết lộ trình doanh thu OCI bốn năm: từ 18 tỷ USD trong năm tài chính 2026 lên 144 tỷ USD vào năm tài chính 2030, đây là cơ sở cốt lõi cho các dự báo dài hạn.
5. Giá cổ phiếu dự kiến năm 2030 nằm trong khoảng từ 300 đến 600 USD, kịch bản lạc quan phụ thuộc vào khả năng thực thi OCI; tuy nhiên, GuruFocus chỉ ra rằng giá cổ phiếu hiện tại cao hơn khoảng 45% so với định giá GF, tiềm ẩn rủi ro giảm giá.
6. Báo cáo tài chính quý IV sẽ được công bố vào ngày 10 tháng 6 năm 2026 là chất xúc tác quan trọng nhất trong ngắn hạn, trọng tâm là tốc độ tăng trưởng OCI và việc điều chỉnh lộ trình 144 tỷ USD.

Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) is no longer the traditional database company it once was.

On June 1, 2026, Oracle's stock price surged approximately 9.9% in a single day, approaching $248 – a move compelling every investor to reconsider: In the AI era, what kind of company is Oracle, exactly?

As Wall Street increasingly views Oracle as a formidable competitor in the cloud infrastructure space, forecasts for Oracle's stock price have become one of the most searched topics for investors seeking AI infrastructure investment opportunities.

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of ORCL's current market position, analysts' forecasts, and annual projections through 2040, while delving into the key factors determining which scenario ultimately materializes.

Key Points

Oracle (ORCL) surged 9.9% on June 1, 2026, closing near $248 – reflecting the market's accelerating re-evaluation of Oracle from a traditional software vendor to an AI cloud infrastructure contender.
As of April 2026, 35 Wall Street analysts maintain a "Buy" consensus rating on ORCL, with a 12-month average price target of $261.29; Guggenheim sets the highest target at $400 (Strong Buy), while Citigroup targets $320 (Strong Buy).
Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) generated $3.3 billion in revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, up 54% year-over-year; the company's remaining performance obligations (RPO) surged 359% to $455 billion, an all-time high for Oracle.
Oracle Chairman and CTO Larry Ellison publicly committed to a four-year OCI revenue roadmap: $18 billion in fiscal 2026, increasing annually to $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and finally reaching $144 billion by fiscal 2030 – the single most important benchmark for any long-term ORCL stock price forecast.
Forecast models generally place ORCL's target range between $300 and $600 by 2030, with the optimistic scenario contingent on OCI execution; GuruFocus, however, issues a cautionary note, estimating the current stock price is about 45% above its intrinsic GF Value, indicating a bearish risk.
Oracle's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report, scheduled for release in June 2026, is the most significant near-term catalyst for ORCL, with a focus on OCI revenue growth rate and any revisions to the $144 billion roadmap.

ORCL Stock Current Dynamics: The Real View of 35 Wall Street Analysts on Oracle

According to price data from GuruFocus, Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) closed near $248 on June 1, 2026, representing a single-day gain of about 9.9%.

The stock's 52-week trading range sits between $134.57 and $345.72, clearly illustrating the dramatic shift in investor sentiment over the past year – the market's perception of Oracle's transformation from a traditional software vendor to a cloud infrastructure contender has swung significantly during this period.

Amidst these fluctuations, however, the analyst community generally holds a positive view.

According to StockAnalysis data, as of April 2026, the 35 Wall Street analysts tracking ORCL maintain a consensus "Buy" rating with a 12-month average price target of $261.29.

The distribution of individual price targets is quite broad:

Low End: $160 (the most conservative analyst on the Street)
Guggenheim: $400, Strong Buy
Citigroup: $320, Strong Buy
Mizuho: $320, Buy

With ORCL's stock price near $248, the average consensus target of $261 implies only single-digit upside in the near term. However, the cluster of institutional targets ranging from $320 to $400 suggests significant appreciation potential exists if Oracle delivers on its cloud business guidance.

This divergence reflects genuine uncertainty about near-term margins and profitability, rather than a disagreement on the long-term opportunity.

Oracle Stock Price Forecast: Complete Annual Forecasts from Near-Term to 2040

For any investor researching ORCL stock price forecasts, the most useful approach is to separate the 12-month analyst consensus from longer-term model-based projections.

These two time horizons are driven by entirely different variables, hold vastly different confidence intervals, and often lead to starkly different conclusions – including whether the present constitutes a reasonable entry point.

ORCL Short-Term Stock Price Forecast

According to the Wall Street consensus from StockAnalysis, as of April 2026, the average ORCL price target from 35 analysts is $261.29.

At the current stock price of approximately $248, the consensus target implies roughly 5 to 6% near-term upside – a figure that appears modest, but these targets were set when ORCL's stock price was significantly lower.

Perhaps more meaningful are the data points at the top end: Guggenheim's $400 target implies 62% upside; Citigroup and Mizuho both set a $320 target (roughly 30% upside).

Near-term price movement is most likely to depend on Oracle's upcoming quarterly earnings report – the company has slated its next earnings release for June 10, 2026 – along with any updates to OCI revenue guidance and overall market sentiment towards enterprise tech stocks.

ORCL Stock Price Forecast for 1 to 3 Years

Beyond the 12-month window, model-based projections generally take a more optimistic view of Oracle's trajectory.

LongForecast predicts ORCL will climb to around $300 by the end of 2027, driven primarily by accelerating cloud revenue growth and sustained improvement in earnings per share as Oracle's infrastructure buildout matures.

The same model offers an even more positive outlook for 2028, projecting ORCL in the $450 range – roughly 82% higher than current levels – by which time OCI contracts are expected to begin translating into durable margin expansion rather than growth-stage capital expenditure.

On a year-by-year basis, the medium-term five-year Oracle stock price forecast reflects two major structural tailwinds with no signs of reversing:

Sustained enterprise demand for large-scale AI cloud infrastructure
Mass migration of large enterprises from Oracle on-premise database licenses to Oracle cloud services

Both are long-term trends rather than cyclical phenomena, and the pace of adoption appears to be accelerating rather than plateauing.

Oracle 2030 Stock Price Forecast

The 2030 price target is where the divergence between optimistic and cautious scenarios in Oracle stock price forecasts is most pronounced.

LongForecast's model predicts ORCL will approach approximately $500 by the end of 2029 and around $600 by the end of 2030 – representing roughly 143% upside from current levels if this trajectory materializes.

TradersUnion's statistical model is more conservative, forecasting a range of $345 to $360 by the end of 2026, and tracking ORCL in the $260 to $290 range through 2031.

The gap between these two approaches ultimately boils down to one variable: the speed at which Oracle converts its $455 billion backlog of remaining performance obligations into recognized revenue.

Both models ultimately depend on Oracle achieving its publicly stated OCI revenue milestones:

Fiscal 2026: $18 billion (+77%)
Fiscal 2027: $32 billion
Fiscal 2028: $73 billion
Fiscal 2029: $114 billion
Fiscal 2030: $144 billion

If Oracle's execution pace aligns closely with this roadmap, the high-end scenario for the 2030 Oracle stock price forecast becomes a credible outcome rather than an outlier.

Should OCI quarterly growth rates show a clear slowdown, the baseline scenario model serves as the more relevant reference.

Oracle 2040 Long-Term Stock Price Forecast

For investors with a 10 to 15-year investment horizon, the Oracle 2040 stock price forecast is cautiously optimistic, assuming the cloud business theme continues to compound.

StockScan's long-term model estimates ORCL's average stock price around $430 in 2040, representing roughly 75% upside from current levels over a 14-year period.

An analysis by TradersUnion published in March 2026 calculated that if earnings per share maintain an annual compound growth rate of 12 to 15% through 2040, Oracle's earnings per share would fall in the $30 to $40 range.

Applying a 14 to 16 times price-to-earnings multiple to this EPS range implies a 2040 stock price window between $420 and $640.

These are model estimates, not analyst price targets, and are highly sensitive to Oracle's ability to sustain revenue growth and protect profit margins in an increasingly competitive enterprise cloud market – a market that will be far more contested 10 years from now than it is today.

Which Factors Could Drive ORCL Up, and Which Could Form Resistance

Oracle's stock price trajectory over the coming years features two clear and competing narratives.

Which narrative materializes will depend on a set of publicly defined metrics – making this a rare, trackable growth story compared to most AI-era assets.

Bullish Scenario – OCI Revenue Acceleration and Oracle's AI Infrastructure Landscape

The bullish argument begins with the data already presented in Oracle's own financial reports.

In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue reached $3.3 billion, up 54% year-over-year – and according to the fiscal Q1 2026 earnings press release officially published on investor.oracle.com, OCI consumption growth rate was 57%.

At this growth rate, the AI customer roster includes OpenAI, xAI, Meta, NVIDIA, and AMD – Oracle CEO Safra Catz confirmed that the company signed four multi-billion dollar contracts with three customers in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 alone.

Oracle's remaining performance obligations – revenue contracted but not yet recognized on the balance sheet – reached $455 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, up 359% year-over-year.

Wall Street's revenue consensus reinforces this momentum: