AI models assess Bitcoin signature security risks: probability of being cracked within 20 years as high as 76%

Odaily News: On-chain analyst Willy Woo shared AI-generated estimates on October 11, showing that the probability of Bitcoin's digital signatures being cracked within the next two years is 1.3%. The related estimates involve quantum computing, as well as classical mathematics or AI-assisted cryptanalysis.

Subsequently, researchers used about 4 AI models to assess the probability of Bitcoin's ECDSA and Schnorr signatures being actually cracked within the next 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, and 20 years. ChatGPT-6 Astra gave a 20-year probability of about 76%, Claude about 66%, Grok 60%, and Deepseek 34%.

All 4 models regard quantum computing as the main long-term threat and believe the related probability over the next two years is 0% to 2%. The models also pointed out that there is currently no practical classical cryptanalysis method for cracking secp256k1, and improvements in AI capabilities themselves have not formed a verified cryptanalytic breakthrough. (Bitcoin.com News)