韩股今日遭外资抛售3.5万亿韩元，三星与SK海力士遭遇全球利率考验

The Odaily Planet Daily reported that data from the Korean exchange showed foreign investors aggressively sold off shares in the Korean stock market on the 19th, with a net sell-off of 3.485 trillion Korean won in a single day, while institutional investors also recorded net sales of 1.324 trillion Korean won. Individual investors, however, absorbed the selling pressure with net purchases of 4.633 trillion Korean won.

Prior to this, foreign investors had recorded net purchases in the Korean stock market for five consecutive trading days (from the 11th to the 18th), with cumulative purchases reaching 8.129 trillion Korean won. However, the amount sold in a single day on the 19th already accounted for 42.9% of the previous cumulative purchases, and the market has begun to focus on whether the foreign capital inflow trend can be sustained.

The recent buying by foreign investors has been concentrated mainly in the semiconductor sector. Data shows that during the period from the 12th to the 18th, approximately 87% of the net foreign capital inflow was directed toward semiconductor stocks, particularly Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. On the 18th, the overall net purchase by foreign investors in the Korean stock market was only 91 billion Korean won, but the semiconductor sector attracted more than 1 trillion Korean won in inflows, indicating that foreign investors are primarily betting on the AI chip cycle rather than a comprehensive recovery of risk appetite in the Korean stock market.

This shift in foreign capital flows is mainly attributable to the rapid rise in long-term government bond yields in the United States and Japan. The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond rose to 5.337% intraday on the 18th, marking its highest level since 2007. Japan's long-term government bond yields have also continued to climb, intensifying volatility in the global bond market.

Market analysis suggests that the rise in U.S. long-term interest rates is not primarily driven by expectations of a renewed rate hike by the Federal Reserve, but rather by factors such as the widening U.S. fiscal deficit, increased pressure from Treasury issuance, and rising corporate bond issuance by major technology companies driven by AI data center investments. Since the increase in long-term bond yields has been notably greater than that of short-term rates, the market tends to interpret this as a rise in the term premium.

If long-term interest rates in the U.S. and Japan remain elevated, foreign capital flows into the Korean stock market may face further pressure. Given the high weight of exports and semiconductors in the Korean stock market, it is relatively sensitive to U.S. market interest rates, the movement of the U.S. dollar, and changes in global liquidity. Foreign investors may continue to take profits in stocks that have recently generated significant gains, such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

However, some views suggest that this round of interest rate shock may not necessarily evolve into sustained capital outflows. The pressure from Treasury issuance that has recently driven up U.S. long-term bond yields may ease temporarily. At the same time, if U.S. inflation and geopolitical risks cool down, the term premium may decline, and foreign investors may still return to semiconductor stocks with relatively high earnings certainty.

Currently, the Korean market's own capacity to absorb foreign selling has weakened. As of the 18th, the total deposits in Korean investor accounts stood at 104.7551 trillion Korean won, a notable decrease from approximately 130 trillion Korean won at the end of June. The balance of credit transaction financing has also fallen below its June peak. Therefore, the future trajectory of U.S. and Japanese interest rates will remain a key variable affecting capital flows in the Korean stock market. (Daum)