高盛：市场对美联储加息的预期过于鹰派

The Goldman Sachs Group stated that, given that US inflation is cooling, market expectations for Fed rate hikes remain overly aggressive. Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a report that the likelihood of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting is "extremely low" due to weak retail sales data, disappointing employment figures, and continued slowing inflation. Hatzius wrote: "Based on our baseline economic forecast, the probability of further improvement in inflation data over time is higher than the possibility of deterioration again. We still believe that market pricing for the federal funds rate is too hawkish."

Data shows that the market has delayed expectations for the next 25-basis-point Fed rate hike to January next year, while a week ago the market fully expected the Fed to raise rates in December. Goldman Sachs believes that although market pricing is no longer as hawkish, there is still room for rate hike expectations to further fade. (Jin Shi)