Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Rebound Depends on Macro Improvement, Institutional Demand Returns but Upside Limited

Odaily Planet Daily News Bitfinex's latest report notes that Bitcoin (BTC) buying pressure is returning, but the current rebound still relies mainly on improvements in the macroeconomic environment rather than crypto market-specific catalysts. While institutional demand continues to strengthen, weaker U.S. employment data has reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September, but corporate treasury selling and persistently high long-term Treasury yields continue to limit Bitcoin's upside.

The report shows that driven by easing geopolitical tensions, falling oil prices, and a cooling U.S. labor market, risk assets have rebounded broadly, with Bitcoin price approaching the upper end of the $62,000–$65,000 range. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, attracting approximately $865.3 million in total inflows, corresponding to the absorption of about 13,300 BTC, while the new supply added to the Bitcoin network during the same period was only around 3,150 BTC.

However, Bitfinex stated that Strategy sold 1,638 BTC last week, and on-chain data shows that the cost basis of approximately 1.79 million BTC is concentrated in the $62,000–$65,000 range, still creating significant overhead supply pressure—a key reason why Bitcoin's price reaction has been relatively muted. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETF inflows continued their trend, indicating that institutional capital is returning to the crypto market, though investment preferences are becoming more concentrated and cautious.

On the macro front, U.S. July non-farm payroll data showed slower job growth, and prior months' figures were revised downward, indicating that the labor market is cooling. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, this was mainly due to a decline in labor force participation rather than a clear improvement in the job market. Bitfinex believes that low layoff levels and declining initial jobless claims suggest the U.S. labor market remains in a "cooling, not recession" phase, but slowing wage growth, falling labor force participation, and a narrower hiring scope all reflect weakening momentum in the job market.

The market has now lowered its expectations for a Fed rate hike in September to 43.9%, pushing short-term Treasury yields and the dollar lower, and supporting gains in stocks and crypto assets. However, long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 30-year yield holding above 5.2%, reflecting investors' ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures and government debt expansion.

Bitfinex noted that if the Fed holds rates steady in September, it would more likely signal a wait-and-see policy stance rather than the start of a rate-cutting cycle. The current macro environment continues to provide support for Bitcoin, but a sustained breakout to the upside would require ETF inflows to consistently exceed market selling pressure, along with further easing of inflation data to push long-term yields lower. Until both of these conditions emerge, Bitcoin will likely remain range-bound.