Serenity：仍看涨内存股，光子板块焦点再次转向AXTI和LITE

The "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity posted on X, stating that they remain bullish on memory stocks such as MU and Samsung. Additionally, this week, the focus in the photonics sector has shifted back to AXT and Lumentum. The photonics industry has already shown signs of supply tightness, with Coherent ($COHR) and Lumentum ($LITE) laser capacity sold out for the next two years. AAOI's recent earnings report also indicated continued strong demand for optical modules.

Meanwhile, the storage sector has seen a wave of panic selling among retail investors. There are indeed some changes in the market right now—for instance, Nvidia's Rubin Ultra has optimized memory usage, and memory prices are no longer expected to rise as sharply as previously anticipated. However, at current price levels, the operating profit of memory makers relative to their market capitalization remains remarkably stretched, especially given the structural growth in storage demand. Moreover, the supply-demand imbalance next year could become even more severe.

Serenity noted that markets often panic when an industry declines and tend to follow new narratives—such as helium during the Iran conflict, the LNG market, and SpaceX's earnings call once again emphasizing storage supply tightness. In many cases, the industry's bottlenecks and fundamentals haven't changed significantly, but market sentiment has already undergone a massive shift.