疯狂补仓撑起美股反弹，专家警告对冲抛压可能会卷土重来

Odaily Planet Daily News S&P 500's rebound is not driven by improved fundamentals, but by hedge covering? Experts warn that as the "options dividend" fades and technical conditions become overbought, the market may face renewed fundamental tests. Recently, the S&P 500 has staged a remarkable rebound, rising about 6% in just five trading sessions since the Federal Reserve's July 29 policy meeting. However, for astute investors, the underlying tone of this rally is not a fundamental turnaround, but a "mechanical" advance driven by options positioning adjustments.

Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management, pointed out that this rally was primarily fueled by a combination of market makers' Gamma position shifts, a rapid decline in implied volatility (VIX), and a surge in call options.

Ahead of the Fed's late-July decision and key earnings releases, options market makers were generally in a "negative Gamma" exposure state. In this environment, markets are highly prone to amplified volatility: when prices rise, market makers must buy more positions to hedge risk, and this "pro-cyclical hedging" behavior inadvertently acts as an accelerator for market upside.

As the index continues to climb, the market has now returned to a "positive Gamma" zone. This means that market makers' hedging logic has reversed—they have begun to adopt "contrarian operations," reducing positions as the market rises. While this force helps dampen volatility, it also signals that the strong upward momentum seen earlier is now weakening.