Bitcoin selling pressure may be easing? Realized losses drop 56% from peak, but demand recovery remains insufficient

According to Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that in the current bear market phase for Bitcoin, holders have experienced the largest-scale realized losses in history. The 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses peaked at $1.37 billion in February 2026, which is 19% higher than the previous cycle's peak of $1.15 billion in 2022. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin's realized losses have dropped by 56.5% to approximately $597 million. Meanwhile, the scale of realized profits has only slowly recovered to $257 million. Axel Adler pointed out that the selling pressure driven by losses has significantly weakened, but the market has not yet seen a sustained recovery in demand, with the rate of decline in losses still outpacing the recovery of profits.

From a historical cycle comparison perspective, realized losses reached $1.37 billion on February 20, 2026, a record high for this indicator. The previous cycle's highest realized loss was $1.15 billion, recorded on June 30, 2022. On the realized profit side, as of July 23, Bitcoin's 30DMA of realized profits stood at $257 million, down 92.7% from the peak of $3.51 billion recorded on December 10, 2024. Compared to the $124,710 all-time high on October 6, 2025, this represents a decline of 77.7%. This indicator touched a low of $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since rebounded by 34.7%.

Axel Adler noted that profit-taking selling pressure has dropped significantly, and the volume of coins being sold for a profit remains at a low level for this cycle. However, this does not mean that sellers are fully exhausted, nor does it indicate a recovery in market demand. If realized profits sustainably rise above $400 million to $500 million, it would serve as a stronger confirmation of a sustained market improvement.

Additionally, the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has recovered from its June low of 0.26 to 0.43, but remains below the 1.0 level. The analyst noted that although the absolute scale of realized losses in the current cycle exceeds that of 2022, the relative market pressure is still lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin's all-time high, realized losses have exceeded realized profits on 190 of the past 291 days. Axel Adler warned that if the Profit/Loss Ratio falls back below 0.26, accompanied by a price drop below the cycle low of $58,535 established on June 30, it could signal further market pressure.