Bitcoin options implied volatility drops to low levels, analysts say it may indicate major price swingsOdaily Planet Daily News Murphy stated that Bitcoin options implied volatility is currently extremely low, with 1-week IV at 33% and 1-month IV at 34%, both below the historical 40% range, which may indicate significant market fluctuations. Murphy's statistics show that similar situations have occurred twice in the past year: 15 days after IV fell below 40% in early January, BTC dropped from $97,000 to $62,000; 14 days after IV fell below 40% in late April, BTC dropped from $82,000 to $60,000; after June 15, BTC dropped from $66,000 to $58,000. Murphy pointed out that low IV is related to market consensus, accumulated volatility arbitrage funds, and the market maker short gamma mechanism, which may amplify the impact of unexpected events, and reminded contract traders to be prepared.
Odaily Planet Daily News Murphy stated that Bitcoin options implied volatility is currently extremely low, with 1-week IV at 33% and 1-month IV at 34%, both below the historical 40% range, which may indicate significant market fluctuations. Murphy's statistics show that similar situations have occurred twice in the past year: 15 days after IV fell below 40% in early January, BTC dropped from $97,000 to $62,000; 14 days after IV fell below 40% in late April, BTC dropped from $82,000 to $60,000; after June 15, BTC dropped from $66,000 to $58,000. Murphy pointed out that low IV is related to market consensus, accumulated volatility arbitrage funds, and the market maker short gamma mechanism, which may amplify the impact of unexpected events, and reminded contract traders to be prepared.
Odaily星球日报讯 Murphy 表示，比特币期权隐含波动率目前极低，1 周 IV 为 33%，1 月 IV 为 34%，均低于 40%历史区间，或预示行情出现大幅波动。Murphy 统计称，近 1 年来已有两次类似情况出现：1 月初 IV 低于 40%后 15 天，BTC 从 9.7 万美元跌至 6.2 万美元；4 月末 IV 低于 40%后 14 天，BTC 从 8.2 万美元跌至 6 万美元；6 月 15 日后，BTC 从 6.6 万美元跌至 5.8 万美元。Murphy 指出，低 IV 与市场共识一致、波动率套利资金累积及做市商 short gamma 机制有关，可能放大超预期事件的影响，并提醒合约交易者做好准备。
