Analyst: Current active BTC investors generally face 20% unrealized losses, cyclical adjustment continues

Analyst Darkfost from CryptoQuant stated on platform X that currently, active Bitcoin investors are experiencing an average of about 20% unrealized losses. Market sentiment is in a "de-valuation" phase, but has not yet reached the deep pressure levels typical of historical bear markets.

Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average cost basis of actively circulating BTC (excluding long-dormant, potentially lost, or illiquid supply). Historically, this level acted as a significant resistance zone in May, with some investors choosing to exit the market at breakeven or with small losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV (Active Value to Investor Value) ratio is currently approximately 0.8, indicating that active investors are, on average, about 20% below their cost basis. In comparison, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to deeper drawdowns of about 40%–50%.

The analysis suggests that in this cycle, the influx of institutional funds and ETFs has not altered Bitcoin's cyclical nature; the market continues to operate according to its own structure. Although significant de-valuation pressure is currently evident, a rebound could potentially be triggered without necessarily needing to reach the extreme levels of historical bear markets. Overall, cautious judgment regarding cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.