CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's Next Bull Run May Require $1 Trillion in Fresh Capital
Odaily Odaily reports that CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin has exhibited a clear "diminishing capital efficiency" characteristic across historical bull and bear cycles. As the asset grows in scale, the price increase brought by each unit of new capital continues to decline:
In the 2011 cycle, approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows drove Bitcoin up by about 55,000%;
In the 2015 cycle, approximately $69 billion corresponded to a roughly 10,000% price increase;
In the 2018 cycle, approximately $365 billion corresponded to a roughly 2,000% price increase;
In the current cycle starting from 2022, approximately $697 billion has been attracted, but the price increase is only about 689%.
The data is based on "Realized Capitalization," which prices coins at their last movement price and is used as an approximate measure of actual capital inflow. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that for Bitcoin to experience another parabolic rise, it may require over $1 trillion in new capital inflows, further solidifying its status as a macro asset, rather than just an ETF-driven trading asset.
Ki Young Ju also noted that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen net capital outflows, and structural market demand is still in a transitional phase. Analysts suggest this trend reflects a natural decline in Bitcoin's marginal returns as market capitalization expands. Unless larger-scale institutional capital steps in, achieving the high-multiple growth seen in earlier cycles will be difficult. (CoinDesk)
