Jefferies Warns: Uncertainty Around CLARITY Act Legislation Could Trigger Crypto Market Volatility

According to a recent report by investment bank Jefferies, although the U.S. "Clarity Act" has passed a bipartisan vote of 15:9 in the Senate Banking Committee, the subsequent legislative process still faces significant hurdles. Political uncertainty could exacerbate crypto market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundary for digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and is considered a core legislative framework for U.S. crypto market structure. Jefferies points out that if passed smoothly, it could significantly enhance institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.

Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a notable decline from 70% in mid-May. This is mainly due to disputes over ethics provisions, anti-money laundering reviews, and a tight Senate schedule. Analysts note that Congress has only about 20 legislative days remaining before the August recess, needing to complete processes such as coordinating versions between the House and Senate, procedural votes, and submitting the bill to the President for signature. If it fails to advance before the recess, it could be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.

Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it would drive the expansion of businesses like tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, benefiting the development of markets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, if delayed, it could suppress institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.

Additionally, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue impacting the stock performance of crypto-related public companies like Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies adds that even as the regulatory landscape gradually clarifies, intensified competition among stablecoins in the future could still become a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)