Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Rebounds After Holding $60,000, Market Structure Shows Selling Pressure Pausing but Buying Not Confirmed
Odaily reports that the Bitfinex Alpha report indicates, as tensions in the Middle East ease and expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire rise, Bitcoin (Bitcoin) held the $59,200 low after multiple tests and rebounded 3.54% this week to close at $65,655.
The report suggests this uptick is driven more by the exhaustion of selling pressure than by new demand. Futures open interest has significantly declined from its May highs, short-term holders sold at a loss, and exchange balances have dropped to seven-year lows, indicating the market has entered a phase of deleveraging and the release of selling pressure.
However, on-chain and capital flow data show demand remains weak: ETF flows are still negative, corporate treasury buying has slowed, and short-term holders are generally experiencing unrealized losses of about 17%–19%, suggesting potential overhead selling pressure remains substantial.
Bitfinex notes that Bitcoin is currently trapped between two key ranges: the cyclical realized price support at around $54,000 below, and facing short-term holder breakeven pressure near $68,000 above, creating a market structure characterized by "selling pressure pausing but buying not confirmed."
On the macro front, US inflation in May rose to 4.2%, mainly driven by energy prices increasing due to the Middle East conflict, while economic growth slowed to 1.6%, raising "stagflation" concerns. However, the market has gained respite from a potential US-Iran agreement; if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and alleviates energy supply shocks, it could reduce inflationary and real interest rate pressures, providing support for risk assets.
The report also points out that the trend of institutionalization continues to deepen: BlackRock has submitted an application for a Bitcoin yield-enhancement ETF; Japan's three major banks, MUFG, Mitsubishi UFJ, and Sumitomo Mitsui, are exploring the joint issuance of a yen stablecoin; and Strategy continued to add 1,550 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 845,256 BTC, reinforcing the trend of sustained corporate accumulation.
