SpaceX IPO Sentiment Heats Up, SPCX Contract on Hyperliquid Rebounds, Pointing to a $2.4 Trillion Valuation

On Friday, the SPCX crypto derivatives contract, linked to the SpaceX IPO, rebounded on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, as market expectations for the opening day performance of Elon Musk's aerospace company have been renewed.

Data shows that the SPCX contract traded back to around $176 to $183 on Friday, after falling to about $153 earlier this week, a significant recovery from the roughly $157 level seen when the market focused on it on Wednesday. The contract currently has an open interest of approximately $216 million and a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million.

SPCX does not represent ownership of SpaceX stock, allocation rights, or equity in the company; it is a cash-settled derivative. However, with the SpaceX IPO price confirmed at $135 per share, the market views the contract as a key reference for gauging investor expectations of the opening price on the first day of trading.

Based on the current price of around $183, SPCX implies a premium of approximately 36% for SpaceX's opening day. The contract rose as high as $216 in May, corresponding to a premium of about 60% over the IPO price. When it fell to $157 earlier this week, the expected premium had narrowed to around 16%.

Meanwhile, other unofficial market signals also indicate a recovery in investor sentiment. Bloomberg reports that data from IG International-related derivatives suggests the market implies a SpaceX valuation of about $2.4 trillion, more than 35% higher than the approximately $1.77 trillion valuation implied by the IPO price. Additionally, Polymarket users currently assign a roughly 70% probability to SpaceX's market cap exceeding $2 trillion at the close of its first trading day.

SPCX had fallen by about 30% over the previous few weeks, reflecting traders' cautious stance on SpaceX's performance; the recent rebound suggests the market is once again pricing in a potentially higher valuation premium from the SpaceX IPO. (CoinDesk)