Glassnode Co-founder: Bitcoin Bottom Formation Area Emerging, High-Probability Bottom Range at $46,000–$54,000

Odaily News: Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted on platform X, analyzing recent Bitcoin price movements. He pointed out that Bitcoin is currently trading in the $62,000 range, having fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high. With a 24% decline over the past month, the price has moved below the upper range of its pricing framework and entered a valuation cluster zone where bottoms have historically formed in previous cycles.

Rafael further noted that market bottoms cannot be confirmed in advance; potential bottom signals can only be identified through probability ranges and key price levels. Bitcoin has for the first time fallen below the breakeven line for median holders (since December 2022) and is now trading within a broader support range: the median realized price is around $64,100, while the 200-week moving average is approximately $61,700. At this stage, the high-probability bottom range could be between $46,000 and $54,000. Levels below this, at $35,000–$40,000, represent a rare “sell-off tail.” It is important to note that cycle retracement magnitudes are gradually decreasing: previous cycle lows saw declines of approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, while the current cycle has only declined about 50%. This suggests the high-probability bottom is more likely to lie within the upper range, although extreme sell-off scenarios cannot be ruled out.