美联储研究：货币政策逻辑重塑，油价冲击下的两难弱化可优先控通胀

The Boston Fed released new research on Thursday stating that fundamental changes in the U.S. energy structure have completely transformed the transmission path of oil price shocks to the domestic economy, also reshaping the monetary policy logic of the Federal Reserve. Currently, the mainstream tendency within the Fed is to hold steady in the short term, observing the subsequent impacts of the conflict. However, officials generally worry that a protracted conflict could solidify high inflation, with some voices already suggesting the possibility of raising interest rates within the year. The Boston Fed's research provides support for this, arguing that even with rate hikes this time around, relying on optimized economic structure, it would not cause the severe downward pressure on employment seen in the past.

However, Morgan Stanley holds a completely different view, believing that the current oil price increase is a short-term supply disturbance and will not become the core driver for Fed rate hikes. Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation will gradually warm up in the second half of the year, and the job market will experience volatility, making it highly likely that the Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged for the whole year, with rate cuts possibly beginning in 2027. (Jin Shi)