Bitcoin once again caught in "May sell-off" debate, market watches for potential historical bear market pattern recurrence
According to Odaily, market analysts are clearly divided over whether Bitcoin is repeating the "sell in May" pattern. Some analysts suggest that during US mid-term election years, Bitcoin has historically experienced significant corrections in May on two occasions: in 2018, it dropped from around $10,000 to $7,000, and in 2022, it fell nearly 30% from near $40,000, subsequently declining further into the $20,000 range. Based on this pattern, some warn that 2026 could once again see a similar bear market structure.
Crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar stated that the cycle "exhibits a high degree of repetition." If history repeats itself, BTC could potentially fall back to $33,000, even amid ongoing progress on the CLARITY Act, favorable policies, and expectations of trade improvement. João Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, noted that when prices consistently remain below $78,000, the market enters a higher-probability "capitulation phase," with bearish momentum intensifying.
However, opposing views argue that historical declines were actually driven by more specific macroeconomic shocks, including tightening liquidity, industry black swan events, and regulatory impacts, rather than mere seasonal patterns. Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx, emphasized that today's market structure has been significantly altered by ETF inflows, institutional allocations, and corporate holdings, making it unlikely to experience the extreme 70%–80% drawdowns seen in the past.
BTC is currently trading around $76,900, with key support believed to be in the $76,000 region. A break below this level could open the door for further downside. (Cointelegraph)
