Analysis: ETH/BTC continues to weaken, breaking below key moving averages, analysts warn of potential 40% further downside

Odaily Planet Daily News Over the past year, ETH/BTC has fallen by more than 35%, with the market structure continuously weakening, raising concerns about further downside risks. Analysis indicates that ETH/BTC's trend remains suppressed by a multi-year descending trendline, a structure that has repeatedly capped rebounds since 2022 and was accompanied by a nearly 70% correction during the 2024-2025 market cycle.

Currently, after rebounding again in August 2025 to the confluence area of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-month moving average, ETH/BTC faced rejection and broke below the support of the 20-month moving average, indicating sustained dominant selling pressure. Technical models show that if the weakness persists, the next key support level could be around 0.0176 BTC, representing approximately a 40% downside from current levels and approaching the 2020 cycle low area.

On-chain data shows that ETH reserves on Binance continue to rise, increasing to about 3.62 million ETH as of May, accounting for roughly 24.6% of the exchange's total exchange holdings, indicating a potential increase in selling pressure. In contrast, Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to decline, reflecting tightening BTC liquidity and stronger holding sentiment.

Analysts believe this divergence strengthens the market pattern of ETH's relative weakness. Meanwhile, at the narrative level, the "ultra-sound money" narrative for ETH has cooled, while Bitcoin continues to benefit from institutional allocation and corporate treasury demand, putting pressure on ETH from both capital allocation and narrative perspectives. (Cointelegraph)