Bitget Dialogue with Frank: From Internet Product Manager to Cross-Market Investor, 2 Rules for a 13-Year Trend Investor to Navigate Cycles

US stocks and cryptocurrencies are two of the asset classes that currently attract the most global investor attention. However, few have managed to establish mature trading systems in both markets.

Today, we have invited Frank @qinbafrank, an experienced investor who entered the US stock market in 2013. He began his career as an internet product manager, later transitioned into a VC partner, and entered the cryptocurrency market in 2017. Having experienced the ICO boom, the depths of a bear market, and multiple cycles of bull and bear markets, he has constructed a unique cross-market investment framework between US stocks and the crypto space.

From Internet Product Manager to Investor: The First Pot of Gold in the Internet Circle

Frank's investment journey began in the internet industry. Around 2013, he was working as a product manager at an internet company. Friends around him started talking about US stocks – some had bought Qihoo 360 shares early on, and a friend had heavily invested when Tesla listed in 2012, making significant profits. This atmosphere spurred him on: "People working in the internet have a natural advantage when looking at tech stocks. Being in the internet industry gives us insight into products and operations; we can understand what a company is doing and whether it's performing well. At the same time, the atmosphere for investing in internet company stocks was very strong."

With this confidence, he bought his first stock – Facebook. The logic was clear: having acquired Instagram and subsequently WhatsApp, this company was the absolute leader in the social media sector. Frank also invested in "Nvidia when it cost $3," but exited after a 3x gain, a regret of "not having a larger vision" that left a deep impression on him.

From 2013 to 2015, Frank accumulated his first pot of gold in his investment career. However, he admits that this phase was more about "cashing in on the era's dividends" – internet professionals flocking to tech stocks, with timing and favorable conditions playing a role. It wasn't until after 2015 to 2017 that he truly developed a systematic understanding of industry investing.

Encountering Crypto: Overcoming Bias, Entering the Market, and the Test of a Deep Bear Market

Later, Frank transitioned from product manager to starting his own business and engaging in primary market investments. A co-founder introduced him to the worlds of Bitcoin, blockchain, and decentralization. Friends were also involved in crypto startups focusing on decentralized social networks. This led him to seriously ponder one question: "Is the internet dividend really fading?"

In the second half of 2017, Frank overcame his prejudice against cryptocurrencies, began entering the crypto industry, caught the tail end of the ICO boom, and was motivated by the profit-making effect. He invested in some private placements and ICO projects, and even encouraged a few friends whose internet startups were struggling to join the crypto industry. He bought $10,000 worth of Bitcoin and $1,000 worth of Ethereum.

However, 2018 arrived, bringing a deep bear market. Frank admits, "The losses were severe." But due to his belief in the underlying technology – peer-to-peer payments and decentralization – he persevered and continued to seek compounding growth within the crypto industry.

The US Stock Investment Principles Behind Accurate Predictions: Industry Fundamentals + Macro Analysis

The real qualitative change in Frank's investment framework came with the 2020 pandemic. The market's violent turbulence made him suddenly realize his previous ignorance of macroeconomics. Fiscal policy, monetary policy, interest rate cycles... these variables were largely outside his field of vision, yet their impact on the pricing of stocks and cryptocurrencies was far deeper than he imagined. "During the pandemic, I spent a lot of time reading books on fiscal and monetary finance, gradually gaining a more holistic understanding of the macro environment."

With this enhanced macro awareness, combined with his previous industry investment system, he formed his US stock investment framework: "The primary factor for US stocks is industry fundamentals; the secondary factor is macroeconomics."

This prioritization directly dictates his operational logic. During minor adjustments, he only trims positions in stocks with good narratives but weak fundamentals, leaving high-quality growth stocks untouched. He only considers adjusting positions in high-quality growth stocks when he identifies medium or large-scale corrections. He particularly emphasizes the difference between US stocks and crypto: "The crypto market moves in tandem with Bitcoin, but individual US stocks follow their own strong logic. Some fall early, some fall late, and some stocks may have already bottomed out while the broader market hasn't. You can't operate individual stocks just by looking at the overall market indices; you need to analyze the specific situation."

Regarding fundamental stock picking, his analytical framework operates on two levels. On the performance level, he focuses on tracking quarterly revenue, profit, and EPS growth, as well as whether future guidance consistently beats expectations. On the business level, he places more importance on the company's position within the industry landscape. "Sometimes the P/E ratio isn't always effective. You need to look at the business strategy and the competitive landscape – is this company in a core position or a bottlenecked position? This determines its scarcity and whether it can command a high premium."

For example, at the end of 2024, he began publicly recommending Palantir (PLTR) on Twitter/X. He bought in when the company had a market cap of around $30-40 billion, positioning it as "the Lockheed Martin of the AI era." The logic was a direct application of the above framework: "PLTR has served the US military for over a decade and is its only big data provider, making it highly irreplaceable. Irreplaceability creates scarcity, and scarcity supports a high premium."

On the macro level, his method is to identify the factors influencing the macro environment at each stage and weigh their importance. "The macro framework isn't fixed; the main contradictions differ at each stage. In 2025, the key focus was on Trump's policies; in 2026, it's mainly about geopolitical conflicts like the Iran situation, as well as government efficiency reforms and Fed actions."

Frank has one phrase he constantly emphasizes: "A sense of cycles isn't about prediction, but about perceiving probability distributions." His logic for judging cycles is precisely an application of the macro framework mentioned above.

In January 2025, he predicted an upcoming correction in US stocks. He systematically analyzed the most critical macro variables at the time – the uncertainty of Trump's policies, pressure from high valuations, and the Fed's stance. Trump's policies were the biggest influencing factor. As he anticipated, due to the dual shocks of DeepSeek and tariffs, US stocks entered a medium-term correction starting in February, with the Nasdaq experiencing a maximum decline of 20% and the S&P 500 falling 18%.

At the beginning of 2026, he continuously warned of a "spring shock market," again accurately predicting a 15% correction in the Nasdaq. The core logic had two parts: first, whether the massive capital expenditure of big tech companies could truly translate into profits; second, the heightened geopolitical risk stemming from the Iran conflict.

Why Trade Both US Stocks and Crypto on Bitget

When asked why he chose to trade US stocks on Bitget, Frank's answer was direct.

"Since the second half of last year, I've written several posts emphasizing that the trend of securitized tokens in the crypto space is very clear. Bitget is the platform most actively embracing this trend of security tokenization."

For users active in both the crypto and US stock markets, Bitget's US stock functionality offers a new alternative to traditional brokerages. "Deposits are very fast, unlike transferring funds in and out of a brokerage, which can take a day or even several days. For someone operating in both markets, capital efficiency is very important."

He also observes a deeper trend: With the continuous influx of institutional funds and ETFs, the boundaries between the crypto market and traditional financial markets are blurring, and the macro linkage between the two markets is strengthening. Being able to view both markets in one place is inherently valuable.

Frank's Investment Q&A: Lessons Learned, Advice for Newcomers, and Future Opportunities

What were the most painful experiences in your investment career?

The most heartbreaking was 2022. That year, I foresaw a grey rhino approaching – if oil prices and inflation remained unchecked, US stocks would have a minor crash, and crypto would have a major crash. I saw the risk and started reducing my positions, but I didn't liquidate completely. I should have cleared out, but I only trimmed, and the remaining positions suffered severe drawdowns.

This is because I am essentially a trend investor, not a trader. Traders have excellent discipline and risk control, cutting losses the moment a risk signal appears. But my approach is to gradually buy at the bottom and slowly sell at the top. The problem with this method is that even though I saw the risk and set up hedges, the remaining positions still faced significant drawdowns.

In 2016, I also paid tuition fees in US stocks. I traded a Chinese ADR advertising stock, thinking its performance was good, but then the company was exposed for 'bullying customers,' and it dropped 40% within a day or two. Also, in 2019 and 2020, I invested in many primary projects in the crypto space, suffering huge losses, with investments that became unrecoverable.

What advice do you have for newcomers who want to invest in both US stocks and crypto markets?

First, strengthen your understanding of macroeconomics. From the Bank of Japan's rate hike in 2024, to the tariff war in 2025, and the recent Iran situation, macro-driven market volatility is becoming more frequent and can even change the pricing mechanisms of certain assets.

Second, let go of the idea of making quick money. Opportunities for fast money in the crypto space are diminishing. Meme coins have extremely short lifecycles, the altcoin season may not come, and many assets have very short survival periods. Look for certainty from a long-term perspective. Identify which assets can survive for three to five years. In US stocks, find targets with solid fundamentals, sustained earnings growth, robust business strategies, and scarcity.

Third, pay attention to position sizing and be cautious with leverage. Especially for newcomers who haven't yet formed their own trading system, using leverage carries significant risk.

Which US stock sectors are worth watching this year?

First, the space economy. A SpaceX IPO could be the biggest in recent years. Both Elon Musk and Jensen Huang have discussed plans for building space data centers. The global race for space resources is accelerating, and the potential for this sector is enormous.

Second, emerging market index ETFs. In the currently hot storage sector, the leaders are Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix, which have boosted the Korean index. Opportunities arising from such industrial prosperity spilling over into specific markets are worth exploring within emerging market ETFs.

Third, the energy sector. As geopolitical conflicts continue to intensify, the scramble for resources among different countries is escalating, which will persistently drive the revaluation of energy assets.