BTC market dominance surges to 61% — Is altseason on the horizon?
- Key Takeaway: Bitcoin's market dominance has risen above 61%, hitting a new yearly high and leading the current rebound. While altcoins are showing early recovery signs such as increased trading volume and market cap recovery, a full-fledged “altseason” has yet to begin, and capital rotation remains moderate.
- Key Factors:
- Bitcoin's market dominance rose to 61% on Wednesday, hitting a new high since November 2025 and leading the market's upward trend.
- The share of altcoin trading volume on Binance increased from 31% in March to 49%, indicating early signs of capital rotation from BTC/ETH to other assets.
- TOTAL3, the total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH, rose 17% to $765 billion, reaching a two-month high.
- The AltSeason Index has recovered to 28.6, but remains far below the 75 threshold for a strong altcoin cycle, indicating that altcoins have not yet fully launched.
- The average price of altcoins is 23.47% below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a significant recovery from its previous low of 44.4%, approaching levels seen at the tail end of the 2022 bear market.
Original title: Bitcoin market dominance moves above 61%: Will altcoins follow?
Original author: Trading View
Original compilation: Peggy, BlockBeats
Editor's note: Bitcoin remains the main driver of the current crypto market rebound. Over the past two months, BTC has risen approximately 36% from its June low of $60,000, pushing its market dominance above 61%, the highest level since November last year. This indicates that while market sentiment has recovered, capital is still flowing first into Bitcoin rather than altcoins.
However, the altcoin market has also begun to show early signs of recovery. The proportion of altcoin trading volume on Binance has increased from 31% in March to 49%, and TOTAL3, the total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH, has also rebounded to a two-month high. At the same time, some altcoins have reclaimed their 200-day moving averages, and overall declines are narrowing.
But this is not enough to declare that "altcoin season" has arrived. Although the AltSeason Index has rebounded to 28.6, it remains far from the 75+ threshold indicative of a strong altcoin cycle. In other words, capital is starting to spread from BTC and ETH, but the rotation is still mild.
Altcoins haven't fully launched; they are just emerging from their weakest phase. The market is still dominated by Bitcoin, while altcoins are in a recovery observation period. Going forward, whether a genuine altcoin rally can materialize depends on BTC maintaining stability and whether altcoin trading volumes and market caps can continue to improve.
The following is the original text:
On Wednesday, Bitcoin's market dominance rose to 61%, the highest level since November 2025. This indicator has been steadily increasing from 58.44% in early April, suggesting that the current uptrend is still more biased towards BTC rather than the broader crypto market.
Meanwhile, over the past two months, altcoin trading volume on Binance has increased by 49%; additionally, 12.6% of altcoins on Binance have reclaimed their 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
Bitcoin market dominance one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Altcoins Show Early Recovery Signs
Crypto analyst Darkfost stated that since hitting a low of $60,000 on February 6, Bitcoin has risen 36%, pushing its market dominance to 61.3%.
Although altcoins have been under pressure for most of this period, TOTAL3, which tracks the total market cap of the crypto market excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has risen 17% to reach a two-month high of $765 billion. The recovery speed of altcoins still lags behind BTC, but multiple indicators have begun to improve.
TOTAL3 one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
CryptoQuant data shows that trading activity in the altcoin market is slowly recovering. Using the combined trading volume of BTC and ETH futures on Binance as a benchmark, the altcoin trading volume share rose to 49% on Wednesday, up from 31% in March. This change indicates that after months of capital concentration towards Bitcoin and Ethereum, market participation in assets beyond these two is increasing.
Darkfost added that this capital rotation is still relatively mild and remains significantly lower than the aggressive rotation phase seen during the previous altcoin rally in 2024.
Altcoin trading volume share. Source: CryptoQuant
Exchange Volume Trends Point to Capital Rotation
Market analyst CW8900 noted that the resurgence of trading activity on centralized exchanges (CEXs) is another signal of improving participation beyond Bitcoin.
According to the analyst, altcoin trading volume, excluding the top five cryptocurrencies by market cap, has been steadily increasing over the past few weeks.
CEX volume share compared to top five cryptocurrencies. Source: CryptoQuant
The 90-day AltSeason Index has also risen to 28.6, marking its fastest recovery pace in months. This index measures whether a majority of altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin within a specific period. Typically, a reading above 75 indicates a strong altcoin cycle. However, CW8900 added:
"This indicator also shows that there hasn't been a true altcoin season in this cycle. The AltSeason Index's highest point was reached in early 2024, but even then, the value was relatively low compared to past altcoin seasons."
CryptoQuant data also reveals that after months of significant underperformance relative to Bitcoin, the overall altcoin market has improved. Currently, the average altcoin price is 23.47% below its 200-day simple moving average, a clear improvement from the over 44.4% deficit seen earlier in this cycle. Similar readings were previously observed near the end of the bear market in late 2022.
Average altcoin performance relative to the 200-day simple moving average. Source: CryptoQuant
