Video Author: Thread Guy
Translation & Curation: Peggy, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: This article is translated from a long-form conversation between crypto trader Cobie and content creator Thread Guy.
Cobie (@cobie) is one of the representative market narrators in the crypto community, having co-hosted the well-known podcast UpOnly. He is known for his understanding of market cycles, trading experience, and a relatively restrained but penetrating expressive style, having formed a stable influential voice within the industry. In 2025, his platform Echo was acquired by Coinbase.
Thread Guy is active in the crypto ecosystem at the intersection of content and product, operating multiple projects including CounterpartyTV, Phantom, and Polymarket, playing the dual role of content creator and builder.
This conversation garnered significant attention within the community and was repeatedly praised as a "long-overdue high-quality long-form interview." The discussion did not dwell solely on market trends or short-term trading judgments, but pivoted to a more fundamental question: when the technological capabilities and institutional expectations of the crypto industry are gradually being realized, why does the market still lack growth momentum? And, amidst this structural dislocation, how should individuals reposition their own paths?
This conversation can be understood on three levels.
First, structural divergence. Cobie introduces a judgment that runs through the entire dialogue: the crypto industry is experiencing an obvious "K-shaped divergence." On one hand, applications like stablecoins, prediction markets, and on-chain trading are entering the real economy, their use cases and user bases continuously expanding; on the other hand, the token assets that ordinary investors can participate in are performing weakly, with demand declining.
This disconnection – "applications are growing, but assets are failing" – has caused the industry's fundamentals to separate from market sentiment, becoming the core source of the current low mood. For investors, the problem is not "whether there is progress," but "whether the progress belongs to them."
Second, the repetition of patterns. Looking back at the expansion path of the crypto market over the past decade, a highly consistent cycle emerges: from altcoins in 2013, ICOs in 2017, DeFi and NFTs in 2021, to the recent meme coins, each wave of user influx relies on the same mechanism. Ordinary people generate significant returns in a short time, leading to widespread adoption.
Narratives change constantly, but the driving force remains stable. From this perspective, the current rise of AI is not necessarily in competition with crypto, but rather a continuation of the same mechanism: a new technological narrative + lower barriers to entry + the imagination of "getting rich quick." The migration of capital and talent is essentially a natural flow of the cycle, not the failure of a single track.
Third, the reconstruction of distribution. Compared to fluctuations in cycles and sentiment, a deeper change is occurring in the value distribution structure. As companies like OpenAI and SpaceX accumulate massive value during their private funding stages, it becomes increasingly difficult for ordinary investors to participate in the real wealth creation process. Public markets are gradually devolving into liquidity exits, rather than starting points for value creation. In this context, crypto's narrative of "open participation" is facing the risk of being absorbed or even restructured by the traditional system.
However, Cobie also points out a potential path: if the current on-chain airdrop mechanism were expanded into a more universal "user value return" method – where users obtain equity distribution by participating in a product and contributing to its growth – crypto could still become an institutional experiment against this trend.
Beyond all the structural discussions, Cobie's conclusion is surprisingly straightforward: if you no longer believe in the long-term value of this industry, you should leave; if you still see its importance over the next five to ten years, you should allocate accordingly based on that judgment, rather than being repeatedly consumed by short-term volatility.
The crypto market has never been a stable wealth generation system, but rather resembles a series of constantly repeated experiments. Each narrative, each cycle, reshapes the way participants and returns are distributed. When short-term paths become unclear, the question is no longer "what will happen next," but: Do you still believe that this system, at some point in the future, will still be worth participating in?
The following is the curated transcript of the conversation (edited for readability):
Thread Guy:
Yo, what's up?
Cobie:
I just kind of messed up. I was scrolling through Twitter and saw you starting a Space (maybe I'm getting old) and wanted to join. Then I clicked in and realized it was a live stream. I didn't even know Twitter could do that. I thought to myself, man, a nearly 40-year-old watching a Thread Guy live stream.
A lot of people are watching, not just you. The rich people are watching too. So, how have you been? You've been pretty quiet lately.
I'm not as funny anymore (laughs). But overall, I'm doing okay, not bad.
Everyone's asking when UpOnly is coming back. What have you been up to these past few months?
Note: UpOnly was a crypto podcast co-hosted by Cobie and Ledger between 2020–2022. The show primarily featured interviews, focusing on market narratives, trading experiences, and industry perspectives. It had significant influence during the 2021 bull run and was considered a key discussion platform in the crypto community at the time.
Working, real work.
The kind of work where you go to Coinbase?
Honestly, I'm working more now than I have in a long time. I actually wanted to join Coinbase a few years ago, even said I'd work for free, but they didn't want me. From my perspective, there are some "high-leverage" things in this industry that can change the overall trajectory, and making Coinbase successful is one of them, so I wanted to give it a shot.
Also, I've been on Twitter for 10 years, I need to do something more challenging and exciting than just thinking up jokes all day.
Note: Cobie initially tried and failed to join Coinbase years ago, but after his platform Echo was acquired by Coinbase in 2025, he re-entered this core institution in a way that could be described as "being absorbed into the system."
I have a ton of questions for you, but let's start with the crypto market. The current state isn't very interesting. Recently, with the Arbitrum, Aave, LayerZero, and Drift issues, sentiment has hit rock bottom. How do you see crypto, especially DeFi, right now? Where is it heading?
I think we might be on the verge of DeFi 2.0.
For me, the most concerning thing right now is that models like Anthropic (or that type of AI) seem capable of "participating" in these systems. This makes DeFi somewhat like a "financial hunting ground." But conversely, once these models are more widely distributed, not only can attackers use them, but the people building the systems can too, making the situation completely different. So I think this is an inflection point, and the future version of DeFi could be quite exciting.
Sentiment in DeFi is very low right now. Besides a few projects like Hyperliquid and Trade.xyz, there isn't much else that's interesting. But these examples are extremely cool – really cool.
Are you trading crude oil now too?
You're trading crude oil? That's great, glad you're making money.
Did you see the bear in my background?
You're starting to decorate, getting a bit of an American vibe.
Yeah, crude oil trading.
So you moved to New York to be a crude oil trader? That's an interesting life path.
You just mentioned DeFi 2.0 and AI. A lot of people even think you're AI now (laughs). But back to the main topic, why are you still willing to invest your time in Coinbase? Aren't you cynical about the future of crypto? A lot of people feel that way – including me. I'm trading crude oil, looking at stocks, doing all sorts of traditional assets.
You're essentially using crypto infrastructure to trade non-crypto assets, right?
I think crypto is experiencing a "K-shaped divergence." On one side, "crypto-native applications" are booming, more successful than ever before, but this success isn't reflected in the asset prices that ordinary investors can buy.
For example, Polymarket is doing incredibly well. Prediction markets have become a real track, even forming a duopoly structure with Kalshi and Polymarket. Stablecoins are starting to be widely used. Doordash uses stablecoins to pay its drivers. These things are actually happening in the real world and are important.
But the problem is, as an investor, you can't buy these things. You can't buy shares of Stripe, it's still private. You can't buy Polymarket. You can't buy these genuinely successful projects. Meanwhile, demand and attention for crypto assets themselves are declining. So you feel frustrated because you ask yourself: "What am I supposed to buy?"
Actually, crypto is doing a lot of what it originally promised. Things like Hyperliquid, Trade.xyz, various on-chain markets – these are very cool. You can even predict Monday's opening price within tens of basis points. This is a "real market" running on-chain.
But the issue is the disconnect between market performance and real progress. Meme coins aren't going up, governance tokens aren't going up, so everyone thinks everything is terrible. But it's just that you can't get exposure to the genuinely good things.
From a macro perspective, I'm still bullish on crypto. If more and more capital flows on-chain, then sooner or later there will be another cycle of frenzy, excitement, speculation, and a bit of "stupidity." But that's inevitable.
You sound quite optimistic now, which is unusual (laughs).
I've always been relatively optimistic. Honestly, I've had many pessimistic moments in my life, but I've never really profited from it.
Maybe if I had been more pessimistic about FTX, I wouldn't have lost so much. Maybe if I had been more pessimistic about those NFTs in 2021, I wouldn't have bought them.
But generally speaking, pessimism hasn't made me more successful.
Alright, let me ask a more realistic concern. Bitcoin's performance right now isn't that strong compared to assets like gold. Everyone should be discussing its value and risk resistance, but instead, the market is just talking about how much Bitcoin Saylor and MicroStrategy hold.
Do you think this is a real risk?
I wasn't worried at all until I went to the dentist. My dentist asked me, "Do you buy stocks?" I said I don't know much about investing. He said, "Have you heard of MicroStrategy?" I was a bit freaked out (laughs).
He's probably over 70 and said he only holds two stocks: 80% MicroStrategy; 20% Palantir. I thought to myself: Damn, I might need to find a new dentist.
That was the first time I realized this thing had "broken out" of the niche. Before, the people interested in MicroStrategy were mostly in the crypto world or on Twitter. But now, it has entered the real world.
Sometimes I even doubt that crypto exists, thinking it might all be in my head. That moment made me realize, no, it's real, and other people know about it too.
Of course, it's also possible that my dentist is a hallucination (laughs).
So are you starting to get genuinely worried about Saylor and his strategy now?
Not particularly worried, but it does feel like it's becoming a "Sword of Damocles" kind of thing. People used to think Saylor was a buyer, a positive signal. Now it feels more like a factor to be wary of.
But this sentiment is very price-dependent. When the price drops, people say, "Oh, Saylor is providing support." When the price rises, it becomes, "Bullish Saylor!" Think back to the last high point, maybe six months ago. The market sentiment then was completely different from now.
I've always thought one of the most magical things about crypto is how real the current sentiment feels. It makes you feel like "there's no other way to feel." But looking back three months, you realize the sentiment was entirely the opposite.
Personally, I've found that pessimism doesn't help me, so I prefer to zoom out and maintain some optimism. Maybe I'm wrong, but at least it's my consistent approach.
Have you met Saylor in person?
I recorded a podcast with him, about two and a half hours. Before we started, a friend texted me, asking, "What are you guys going to talk about?" I said, "We'll just ask one question – is Bitcoin good? Then Saylor will talk for three hours by himself."
And that's exactly what happened. We barely said anything, and he talked for hours alone. But it was a good time (laughs). I even tried to invite him to my New Year's party, but I didn't go myself either.
Do you basically never go out anymore?
Honestly, I almost never leave the house. If I really had to go out, I would, but most of the time I just stay home.
Are you one of those people who is completely "terminal online"?
Not completely. I go for walks sometimes – in my own garden. Mostly to avoid encountering other people (laughs).
So is that why UpOnly isn't coming back? Everyone really wants to know.
You know the saying "the sophomore album curse"? Some bands have a huge debut album, but the second one flops. I feel like I'm in that position now.
Every time I think about restarting the podcast, I start doubting everything: I don't know if I can be as interesting as before; I don't know what to talk about; I don't know who to invite; and many of the guests I had before ended up in prison (laughs), so now I have to think twice before inviting anyone.
More importantly, UpOnly happened during the "best market phase": everyone was stuck at home during the pandemic; Bitcoin went from $4,000 to its peak; Ethereum went from $80 to $4,000; followed by the NFT bull run. It was a period when everyone was making money and sentiment was
