The indefinite extension of the ceasefire, how long will the U.S.-Iran conflict remain in a stalemate?
- Core Viewpoint: The Trump administration has indefinitely extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire while maintaining a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, attempting to force Iran to make concessions on the nuclear issue through a composite pressure strategy of "fighting without war." However, Iran has firmly refused to restart negotiations under the blockade, leaving both sides in a short-lived but highly fragile stalemate.
- Key Elements:
- Strategy Mix: The U.S. implements a parallel strategy of "extending the ceasefire" and "maintaining the blockade," aiming to avoid a full-scale war while continuing to suppress Iran's energy exports and nuclear program.
- Iran's Stance: Iran denies requesting an extension of the ceasefire, declares it will not reopen the Strait as long as the blockade persists, and emphasizes it will not negotiate under threat. The core demands of both sides are severely opposed.
- Market Spillover Effect: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated global oil price volatility, with Brent crude once rising to approximately $98 per barrel. The U.S.-Iran standoff has significantly impacted the global energy supply chain.
- Failed Negotiations: The second round of talks, originally scheduled to be held in Pakistan, fell through due to Iran's refusal to attend. The U.S. demands that Iran abandon its nuclear program, while Iran views these demands as "unacceptable."
- Escalation of Military Standoff: Iran's military has declared it is in a state of full combat readiness, and at least 34 Iranian oil tankers have broken through the blockade. The UK and France are convening multiple countries to coordinate efforts to maintain passage through the Strait, with all parties in the game continuing to raise the stakes.
- Fragility Assessment: Experts believe Trump's high-pressure strategy has placed him in a strategic dilemma. This passive "ceasefire," lacking mutual trust, is a fragile balance that could be broken at any time.
Original Title: Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, Blockade as Peace Talks Stumble
Original Author: Courtney Subramanian and Jennifer A Dlouhy, Bloomberg
Original Translation: Peggy, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: US President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran just before the truce was set to expire, while maintaining the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated the US would extend the ceasefire until Iran submits a new proposal, "and no matter the outcome, until the negotiations conclude." He also emphasized that without this blockade, "it would be impossible to reach any deal with Iran."
Strategically, the US is attempting to use a combination of "extending the ceasefire + maintaining the blockade" to continue pressuring Iran on nuclear issues and negotiation terms while avoiding an immediate escalation into full-scale war. However, Iran has neither accepted the negotiation terms nor proactively requested an extension of the ceasefire. Instead, it maintains a强硬 stance on energy exports and military posture, leaving both sides in a deadlock over the core issues of "whether and how to negotiate."
More notably, this standoff has begun to spill over into global markets. As a critical chokepoint for global energy transportation, the repeated closure and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has not only exacerbated oil price volatility but also amplified uncertainty within the energy and shipping systems. In the short term, the ceasefire extension provides some market buffer. However, in the medium to long term, without a clear negotiation framework and basic mutual trust, this passively extended ceasefire resembles a fragile balance that could be broken at any time.
As diplomatic pathways remain blocked and military deterrence intensifies, the next phase of this conflict will depend on whether the two sides return to the negotiating table or slide towards more intense confrontation.
The following is the original text:
US President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran just before the truce was set to expire; meanwhile, the US maintains the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after scheduled peace talks between the two sides fell apart.
Trump stated on his social media platform Truth Social that Pakistan, acting as a mediator, requested the US to delay launching a new round of strikes. The US will extend the ceasefire until Iran submits a new proposal, and "no matter the outcome, until the negotiations conclude." In another post, he said that without this blockade, "it would be impossible to reach any deal with Iran—unless we bomb the rest of their country, including their leaders!"
US Vice President JD Vance had planned to travel to Pakistan to restart negotiations with Iran, but Tehran's representatives refused to attend, stating that the conditions proposed by the US were "unacceptable." Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that there is currently "no realistic possibility" for Iran to participate in negotiations.
A White House official confirmed in a statement that the Vice President's planned trip for Tuesday would not proceed.
This stance starkly contrasted with Trump's earlier comments that same day. In a CNBC interview, he said he "would expect bombing" if Iran did not meet his conditions, claiming the US military was "ready and can act at any time." In a phone interview on Monday, Trump also stated that he was "highly unlikely to extend" the current ceasefire if no agreement was reached.
Oil prices rose for a second consecutive day following the news of the ceasefire extension. Brent crude oil traded around $98 per barrel after surging nearly 9% over the previous two trading sessions. Oil prices were below $60 in January of this year, before hitting a high of $119.50 in March. The average US retail gasoline price is currently about $4 per gallon, compared to around $3 before the war began on February 28.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked Trump in a statement for extending the ceasefire, "buying time for the ongoing diplomatic efforts to proceed smoothly."
James F. Jeffrey, former US Deputy National Security Advisor and currently a distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute, discussed the ceasefire extension on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily, in conversation with hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec.
He posted on X platform: "I sincerely hope both sides will continue to adhere to the ceasefire and reach a comprehensive 'peace agreement' during the second round of talks in Islamabad, leading to a permanent end to the conflict."
Senior Iranian officials had not responded to Donald Trump's statement by late night Tehran time. Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency, citing unnamed sources, said Iran had not requested an extension of the ceasefire. Meanwhile, the agency stated that Iran would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz as long as the US maintains its naval blockade.
Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency, citing a military statement, reported that Iran's armed forces are "in a state of full combat readiness, with fingers on the trigger."
Security personnel guard a checkpoint near the Serena Hotel in Islamabad on April 22. Photo: Aamir Qureshi / AFP / Getty Images.
These developments mark the latest round of back-and-forth between Washington and Tehran since the two sides announced a two-week ceasefire on April 7. Since then, they have engaged in public disputes over the terms of the agreement, alternately closing and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas exports passed through this strait.
According to data intelligence firm Vortexa, at least two fully loaded Iranian oil tankers have exited the Persian Gulf this week, breaking through the US blockade. The company's data also shows Iran retains the capacity to export oil, with at least 34 Iran-linked tankers and gas carriers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, navigating past the naval blockade.
The British Navy said Wednesday that an Iranian patrol boat fired on a container ship near the Strait of Hormuz, causing "significant damage" to its bridge, but no casualties were reported.
US Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, criticized President Donald Trump for lacking a clear plan regarding the conflict with Iran. Warren shared her views on the Balance of Power: Evening Edition program.
The UK and France are convening a two-day summit with military planners from over 30 countries to discuss how to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have been leading efforts to coordinate a plan to keep the strait open after the Iran war ends, although they have rejected Trump's request for allies to forcefully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Following the initial ceasefire announcement, a round of negotiations between the US and Iran took place but ended in failure. US officials stated that Iran was unwilling to accept restrictions on its nuclear program; Iran, in turn, said the US presented a series of unacceptable demands.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Source: AFP / Getty Images
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the Tehran delegation in the first round of talks, stated on Monday that Iran would not "accept negotiations under the shadow of threats."
While the ceasefire extension may soothe investor sentiment in the short term, a durable agreement to end the war remains highly uncertain. The conflict, now in its eighth week, has killed thousands, triggered a global energy crisis, and increased pressure on both sides to find an "exit strategy."
Donald Trump demands that Iran abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons and hand over its nuclear materials. Tehran denies having such intentions and refuses to surrender its enriched uranium.
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Trump has "somewhat backed himself into a corner" because he doesn't actually want a return to military conflict.
"He made a strategic mistake thinking that raising the volume on the Iranians would work," Vatanka said. "That approach doesn't work with this regime. Quiet pressure is often more effective than public pressure."
