Serenity Questions SIVE's Development Strategy: Should Shift Focus to the U.S. Market, Otherwise Valuation Will Be Trapped

Odaily News "White Hair Stock God" Serenity has published a post questioning the development strategy of Sivers Photonics (SIVE), arguing that the company remains overly focused on the Swedish market, while U.S. investors may be more concerned about its future growth potential and the real economic value brought by its orders.

Serenity stated that U.S. analysts are more likely to focus on what Sivers' two recently secured wafer fab capacity allocations mean, and how much revenue and operating leverage these capacities will translate into amid supply bottlenecks and rising ASPs (average selling prices). In addition, topics such as NPO/CPO, pluggable optical modules, the 2028 volume ramp-up of CPO players like Ayar, the collaboration between ELS products and O-Net, as well as the scale and potential TAM (total addressable market) of the six newly added pluggable customers, are also worth deeper discussion.

In contrast, questions raised by the local market tend to focus on "how to stop the bleeding," why private customers cannot be disclosed, why the company focuses on transceivers, and what the "business opportunity pipeline" actually means—causing management to spend considerable time responding to doubts rather than discussing future growth.

Serenity believes that the more time Sivers spends on the Swedish market, the more its valuation will be constrained by the investment logic of the Swedish market. Therefore, the company needs to more actively present its future growth opportunities and the underlying economic value to U.S. investors.