Polymarket odds of "US-Iran peace negotiations before August 7" drop to 9%, down 14% in 24 hours

PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's "US-Iran peace negotiations before August 7" probability has dropped to 9%, down 14% in 24 hours.

The event will be settled based on whether representatives from both the United States and Iran initiate the next round of formal, high-level peace negotiations before the specified date (by 11:59 PM ET).

Qualifying negotiations must be in-person diplomatic meetings or negotiation rounds involving senior representatives from both sides. Representatives must participate in an official capacity, be authorized by their respective governments, and be capable of directly conducting or substantively advancing diplomatic talks.

In-person diplomacy conducted through designated mediators, coordinators, or intermediaries may also count, provided that senior representatives from both the US and Iran participate in the same formal diplomatic process, and both governments are informed and have authorized it. Representatives from both sides need not be in the same location simultaneously.

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