ARK Invest: BTC Price Decline Diverges from Whale Accumulation, Signaling Potential Cycle Bottom

Odaily reports that ARK Invest has released its Q2 2026 "The Bitcoin Quarterly" report, indicating that Bitcoin fell approximately 14% in the second quarter, closing around $58,544, and broke below three major technical moving averages. This technical pattern has historically been associated with bearish market environments in past cycles. The report shows that despite price pressure, Bitcoin Long-term Holders continued to increase their positions, with their holdings reaching a new all-time high of approximately 14.85 million BTC, absorbing the coins released during the market correction.

ARK Invest stated that on-chain data is signaling seller exhaustion: the supply of BTC in a loss exceeds the supply in profit, while the rate of loss has at times surpassed the rate of profit. Historically, such phenomena have tended to cluster near market cycle bottoms.

The report also pointed out that institutional demand for Bitcoin is facing headwinds. Signs of weakness have emerged in both corporate Bitcoin reserves (Treasury Companies) and the ETF ecosystem:

The STRC preferred stock price once fell to approximately $74.57, below its $100 par value;

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced capital outflows for seven consecutive weeks, with cumulative outflows totaling approximately 70,000 BTC.

ARK Invest believes that ETF outflows indicate a weakening of a key marginal buyer for Bitcoin. However, the continued accumulation by long-term holders suggests a redistribution of coins is taking place within the market.

The firm noted that a clear divergence has formed between current BTC price performance and the behavior of long-term holders. Historical data shows that such divergences have often served as important signals for potential turning points in market cycles.