SerenitySivers could support hundreds of millions in gross profit with just a small capacity allocation, and CPO volume expansion may further unlock growth

Odaily reports that "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that if Sivers secures approximately 10% wafer capacity allocation from foundry Win Semi through an asset-light model, under assumptions of 65% yield and an ASP of $50 to $75, its optical array products could generate annual revenue of $341 million to $512 million. Based on management's gross margin target of 50% to 60%+, this translates to an annual gross profit of approximately $205 million to $307 million.

At Sivers' current market cap of around $1.1 billion, the implied market cap-to-gross profit multiple in this scenario is only about 3.6x to 5.4x. If the capacity allocation increases to 15%, annual gross profit could rise to $307 million to $461 million, further reducing the valuation multiple to 2.4x to 3.6x.

Serenity noted that Sivers' CEO has previously confirmed the company is collaborating with more wafer fabs to expand capacity, and since 2024, its supply chain certification scope has been continuously widening. As the co-packaged optics (CPO) market accelerates, future revenue guidance and capacity plans may be further upgraded.

On the demand side, continuous wave (CW) laser supply remains tight. Lumentum's earnings report shows the company has begun purchasing CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders; TrendForce data indicates that AMD is locking in related capacity through long-term agreements. Serenity believes that with Sivers advancing mass production alongside partners like GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, and O-Net, any new certified independent capacity could be quickly absorbed by the market.

Additionally, a recent report from Morgan Stanley has listed Sivers, with a market cap of approximately $1.1 billion, as one of the three core CPO laser players, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, each with market caps exceeding $55 billion. Serenity believes that beyond its existing business, following its Nasdaq listing, Sivers could expand its TAM through M&A, replicating Lumentum's path of acquiring Cloud Light to enter the complete optical module and optical engine market.