CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's Next Bull Run May Require $1 Trillion in New Inflows
Odaily Odaily reports that CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin has exhibited a clear "diminishing capital efficiency" characteristic across its past bull and bear cycles. As the asset's market cap grows, the price appreciation generated per unit of new capital inflow continues to decline:
In the 2011 cycle, approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows drove Bitcoin up by roughly 55,000%.
In the 2015 cycle, approximately $69 billion in inflows corresponded to roughly a 10,000% increase.
In the 2018 cycle, approximately $365 billion in inflows corresponded to roughly a 2,000% increase.
In the current cycle, which began in 2022, roughly $697 billion has been attracted, but the price increase has been about 689%.
This data is based on "Realized Capitalization," which values coins at the price of their last transaction, serving as an approximate measure of actual capital inflows. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that for Bitcoin to see another parabolic rally, it might require over $1 trillion in new capital inflows, further solidifying its status as a macro asset rather than merely an ETF-driven trading asset.
Ki Young Ju also noted that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen net outflows, indicating that structural market demand is still in a transitional phase. Analysis suggests this trend reflects the natural decline in Bitcoin's marginal returns as its market capitalization expands. Unless there is significant institutional capital absorption, achieving the high multiples of growth seen in earlier cycles will be difficult. (CoinDesk)
