QCP: Market risk shifts from news-driven phase to execution risk phase

Odaily reported that QCP Capital’s latest macro weekly report shows global market risk is shifting from easing geopolitical news to more complex execution risks. Although the US and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding and Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $80 per barrel, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has signaled a stronger “higher for longer” interest rate stance, with the median rate forecast for 2026 rising to 3.8%. Additionally, Strategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, but with spot prices below its cost basis, its financing pressure is further increasing. QCP believes the market is currently transitioning from short-term sentiment recovery to a phase testing fundamental delivery capabilities.