analysts: Strategy Remains Far from Forced Liquidation, Comparing STRC De-Pegging to UST Event Is Clearly Overblown

Odaily Odaily News Cryptocurrency analyst Murphy stated that Strategy currently does not face a preferred stock solvency crisis. According to Murphy, to breach Strategy's preferred stock tier, Bitcoin's price would need to fall to $26,000; to breach the debt tier, it would need to drop to $8,000.

Murphy pointed out that the similar product SATA remained above $99 this week, while STRC experienced de-pegging, indicating that the current market sell-off is more targeted at Strategy itself rather than a flaw in the related product design. He believes this is more of a repricing of leverage and credit, as well as a liquidity contraction triggered by cash reserve depletion and amplified signals from the first-ever sale, rather than a liquidation crisis.

Murphy stated that Strategy is still a considerable distance from forced liquidation. However, at the current price level, its "flywheel model" has temporarily stalled. The subsequent trajectory of Bitcoin's price will determine whether this is a mid-cycle adjustment or the beginning of a deeper risk. In his view, equating the STRC de-pegging with the UST de-pegging and LUNA collapse of the last cycle is a clear overreaction. Should Bitcoin's price recover and equity ATM financing resume, Strategy would likely be able to replenish its cash reserves and restart its capital operations model.