view: Prediction market will not be dominated by a single player, replicating the perpetual contract development path to form a multi-platform coexistence pattern

Odaily Planet Daily News: CJ Hetherington, co-founder and CEO of prediction market platform Limitless Labs, stated that he does not believe the prediction market industry will see a single dominant monopoly pattern, drawing a parallel to the offshore perpetual contract market – where even leading platforms have never held over 90% market share for an extended period. The core trading volume in derivatives markets comes from market makers and high-frequency traders. These participants typically operate across multiple platforms and exploit price spread arbitrage, structurally limiting market concentration.

CJ Hetherington cited Binance perpetual contracts as an example, noting that its market share once approached 50% but was gradually diverted by other trading platforms, forming a multi-platform coexistence pattern. He believes prediction markets will follow a similar path rather than a "winner-takes-all" scenario.

Hetherington pointed out that future industry distribution will mainly occur through brokerages and futures commission merchants. Institutions including Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and Charles Schwab will compete in distribution, with fees and marketing becoming the core of consumer-side competition. However, he noted that the US regulatory framework is actually an "advantage, not an obstacle" for the prediction market industry, as CFTC oversight helps reduce contract disputes and enhance transparency, while also being more suitable for institutional participation. (The Block)