Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Rebounds After Holding $60,000, Market Structure Shows Selling Pressure Pausing but Buy Orders Not Confirmed

Odaily Odaily reports that the Bitfinex Alpha report indicates, as tensions in the Middle East ease and expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire rise, Bitcoin has held the $59,200 low after multiple tests and rebounded 3.54% this week to close at $65,655.

The report suggests that this rally is driven more by exhaustion of selling pressure than by new demand. Previously, futures open interest has significantly declined from the May highs, short-term holders sold at a loss, and exchange balances have dropped to seven-year lows, indicating that the market has entered a phase of deleveraging and selling pressure release.

However, on-chain and capital flow data still show weak demand: ETF flows remain negative, corporate treasury buying has slowed, and short-term holders are generally in an unrealized loss of approximately 17%–19%, meaning potential overhead selling pressure remains significant.

Bitfinex points out that Bitcoin is currently trapped between two key ranges: a cyclical realized price support level at approximately $54,000 below, and selling pressure from short-term holders looking to break even near $68,000 above. The market exhibits a structure of "selling pressure paused but buying not confirmed."

On the macro level, US inflation in May rose to 4.2%, mainly driven by rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict, while economic growth slowed to 1.6%, fueling "stagflation" concerns. However, the market has found some respite due to the potential US-Iran agreement. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and alleviates the energy supply shock, it could lower inflation and real interest rate pressures, providing support for risk assets.

The report also notes the continued deepening of institutional trends: BlackRock has submitted an application for a Bitcoin yield-enhancing ETF; Japan's three major banks, MUFG, Mitsubishi UFJ, and Sumitomo Mitsui, are exploring a joint issuance of a yen-pegged stablecoin; and Strategy has continued to increase its holdings by 1,550 BTC, bringing its total position to 845,256 BTC, reinforcing the trend of sustained corporate accumulation.