Polymarket “Probability of Trump agreeing to ease Iran oil sanctions before end of June” rises to 87%, up 12% in 24 hours

Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket’s “Trump agrees to ease Iran oil sanctions before the end of June” has risen to 87%, up 12% in 24 hours.

The event contract rules stipulate: If the United States agrees to cancel, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iran’s oil exports before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on June 30, 2026, the outcome will be deemed “Yes”; otherwise, it will be deemed “No.” Sanctions restricting Iran’s oil exports refer to measures by the U.S. that prohibit or restrict the production, sale, transportation, purchase, or export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, or petrochemical products (including transportation, insurance, and financial transactions related to such exports). The U.S. will be considered to have agreed to cancel, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if any of the following conditions are met:

1. Trump or another authorized representative of the U.S. government publicly announces that the U.S. has ultimately agreed to cancel, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil;

2. The cancellation, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions has been incorporated into a formally concluded treaty or agreement between the U.S. and Iran, including treaties or agreements reached through signing or other formal means.

Trump posted on social media today: “A deal with Iran has been reached. Congratulations to everyone! I hereby fully authorize free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and also authorize the immediate lifting of the U.S. Navy blockade on Iran. Ships of the world, set sail. Let the oil flow!”

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