SpaceX IPO expectations heat up as SPCX contract on Hyperliquid rebounds, pointing to a $2.4 trillion valuation

Odaily Odaily星球日报讯 A crypto derivatives contract tied to a potential SpaceX IPO, SPCX, has rebounded on the decentralized exchange HyperLiquid, as market expectations for the debut of Elon Musk's space company heat up once again.

Data shows that the SPCX contract traded back up to around $176 to $183 on Friday, after falling to about $153 earlier this week. This marks a significant rebound from the roughly $157 level seen on Wednesday when market attention was focused. The contract's open interest is currently around $216 million, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million.

It is important to note that SPCX does not represent ownership of SpaceX stock, allocation rights, or equity in the company. Instead, it is a cash-settled derivative. However, with the SpaceX IPO price set at $135 per share, the market views this contract as a key reference for gauging investor expectations of the opening price on the first day of trading.

At the current price of around $183, SPCX implies a premium of approximately 36% on SpaceX's debut day. Previously, in May, the contract had surged to $216, corresponding to a premium of about 60% over the IPO price. When the contract fell to $157 earlier this week, the expected premium had narrowed to roughly 16%.

Meanwhile, other informal market signals also indicate a recovery in investor sentiment. Bloomberg reports that data from IG International-related derivatives suggests the market implies a valuation of approximately $2.4 trillion for SpaceX, which is over 35% higher than the roughly $1.77 trillion valuation implied by the IPO pricing. Additionally, Polymarket users currently assign a roughly 70% probability to SpaceX's market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion at the close of its first trading day.

Prior to this rebound, SPCX had fallen by about 30% over several weeks, reflecting traders' cautious stance on SpaceX's market performance. The recent rally indicates that the market is once again pricing in a potentially higher valuation premium from a SpaceX IPO. (CoinDesk)