Polymarket "Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by June 30" probability drops to 25%, down 25% in a week
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket "Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by June 30" probability has dropped to 25%, a 25% decline in a single week. As of now, the total trading volume for this event has approached $12 million.
The event contract rules stipulate: If the IMF Portwatch reports that the 7-day average number of vessel arrivals transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, is equal to or greater than 60, the market will be resolved as "Yes"; otherwise, the market will be resolved as "No." Daily vessel arrival counts include container ships, bulk carriers, ro-ro vessels, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Vessels not reported by the IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
US and Iranian forces previously clashed again near the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump indicated earlier today that negotiations with Iran on a temporary peace agreement would "turn out well." He faces a balancing act between potentially unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian funds at Tehran's request—which could invite subsequent criticism—and the need to navigate this. Trump had said last Friday that he would make a "final decision," but he delayed that decision as both sides continue to negotiate details such as Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and how to reopen the Hormuz waterway (which may require demining first).
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing occurs.
