Kyle Samani: Kalshi and U.S. Crypto Perpetual Contracts Face Uncertainty, Three Potential Outcomes Possible

Odaily Odaily News Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani posted on X platform analyzing three potential scenarios for the development of Kalshi and the U.S. crypto perpetual contract market:

1. Kalshi's previous efforts are irrelevant: Because the U.S. market itself can already offer non-regulated perpetual contracts.

2. Protocols must meet the CLARITY Act's eight decentralization tests: If the CLARITY Act passes smoothly, protocols can offer perpetual contracts in the U.S. without registering as a DCO (Designated Contract Organizer) or DCM (Designated Contract Market).

3. Products can still attract users, but cannot legally enter the U.S. financial system: Even if users approve, protocols may still be unable to distribute within the compliance framework.

Analysis suggests that these potential outcomes highlight the complex relationship between current U.S. derivatives regulation and decentralized protocols, as well as the uncertainty around bringing innovative financial products to reality in a legally compliant manner.