Analysis: Strait of Hormuz navigation approaching, awaiting demand recovery

Odaily Odaily reports that CITIC Securities believes the U.S. and Iran are increasingly close to reaching an agreement, and the market has largely priced this in as the baseline scenario. The biggest change after an agreement is reached would be the simultaneous recovery of supply and demand, as well as a rapid warming of economic activity. Certain current economic indicators are notably weak, reflecting delayed demand ahead of the U.S.-Iran agreement and the opening of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Micro-level entities are waiting rather than rushing to replenish inventories and restart operations — this is an abnormal disruption. Once an agreement is signed and the Strait resumes navigation, both supply and demand will return to normal, and economic activity will see significant improvement after June. In addition, changes in macroeconomic variables will alter the environmental assumptions for market strategies, leading to a gradual balancing of market styles.

The reduction of holdings by large funds is nearing its end. As the macro environment stabilizes, allocation-oriented capital will gradually return, driving a recovery in some undervalued sectors. In terms of allocation, continue to actively reduce volatility and rebuild a barbell structure of AI + energy transformation. (Jinshi Data)