Analysis: BTC Hard to Hold Above $80,000 in Short Term, Weak Spot Demand Dampens Breakout Expectations

Odaily Bitcoin fell below $78,000 on Thursday, with growing concerns over the sustainability of a rebound. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive trading days, while the liquidation of approximately $584 million in long positions earlier this week continues to suppress market risk appetite. Analysts believe that until on-chain spot demand recovers, BTC will find it difficult to hold firmly above $80,000 in the short term.

The pressure on the Ethereum market is even more pronounced. ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $28.1 million on the day, marking the eighth consecutive trading day of capital outflows. Since May 7, cumulative outflows from ETH ETFs over nine trading days have reached approximately $504 million, the most severe sustained capital exodus since February this year.

In the derivatives market, total futures liquidations in the crypto market on Monday reached approximately $657 million, with long liquidations accounting for $584 million, the largest single-day long-squeeze event since early February this year. Bitcoin's open interest has since fallen about 14% from its May 6 high, but the overall leverage structure has not yet fully reset.

On-chain data also leans bearish. Glassnode indicated that Bitcoin's recent rebound to $82,000 briefly recaptured the key "realized market price" level of $78,300, but has since broken back below it. Historical cycles show that BTC typically requires several weeks to months of consolidation in this zone to confirm a shift in the bull-bear structure.

Additionally, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has been negative for nine consecutive trading days, the longest net selling cycle since 2026. Meanwhile, BTC's hourly spot trading volume has declined by about 40% compared to the same period in 2025. Analysts note that US investors have been consistently distributing coins since Q4 2025, while Asian capital has shifted to accumulation.

The options market is also signaling caution. BTC's 25-delta skew for near-term options has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a clear increase in demand for downside protection. Approximately $2.5 billion in negative gamma positions are concentrated around the $75,000 strike price. If BTC falls back to this area, market maker hedging activity could further amplify volatility.

In the altcoin space, the market continues to largely follow BTC's movements, with Bitcoin's dominance holding steady around 60%. However, Hyperliquid and Zcash have bucked the trend with double-digit gains, suggesting selective rotation by some capital. (The Block)